US companies should now be more worried about Chinese companies flooding the market with their, hopefully, very affordable GPU's. The scale at which they can manufacture stuff is unmatched anywhere else. Nvidia can kiss goodbye to their 75%+ profit margins.
Almost everyone knew that these sanctions would backfire within a few years. You can't really put sanctions that have noticeable negative effects on bigger economies. They only work for small to medium economies. I believe sanctions on any economy in top 10 would fail.
China is gated by not having EUV machine access. They're also bottlenecked by ASML's DUV machine production like everyone else. There are already talks of banning China from even purchasing DUV machines from ASML.
So until China solves the ASML problem, there won't be any flooding.
>until China solves the ASML problem
Which they are in progress on: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh...
Yes, but we don't know how well they work or what nm can they print or how machines they can make.
They've overcome every hurdle to go from nothing to having working machines, so all these questions are presumably a matter of how fast they will improve and ramp up production (initially 5 this year, 20 next year), not whether they will.
China have been really squeezing all they can out of DUV machines, but I'm not sure how much node size really matters for AI competition - more of a cost issue (more chips/power for same FLOPs) than anything, and TSMC & NVIDIA's healthy profit margins need to be considered too.
I'm well aware of how good China is at manufacturing. However, DUV/EUV machine manufacturing is unproven.
What is the timeline like? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?
They already have working machines, and are slated to ship the first 5 early production ones right about now (before the end of 2026), and are projecting 20 for next year.
Small numbers perhaps, but this is happening right now.
What will the numbers be in 5-10 years time? Who knows, but ASML took about 5 years to go from 20/yr to 100+/yr.
Of course politically the world may well be quite different in 5 years time, as may be the AI market.
Yes, 5 years seems like an eternity in AI world.
We also don't know how small of nm chips they can manufacture. If it's 20nm, it's practically useless for advanced AI chips.
> There are already talks of banning China from even purchasing DUV machines from ASML
A bit late for that now that they are moving into early production with their own.
pretty sure they'll be fine for a while, between the build out and import bans, I don't expect demand to slow enough to let supply catch up
Nvidia are likely more concerned about AMD taking market share, and I suspect that geopolitics will leave US/China GPUs with largely non overlpping customer bases.
> I suspect that geopolitics will leave US/China GPUs with largely non overlpping customer bases
That's not what's happening in the auto-industry, Chinese EVs are easily outselling American ones. Why would GPUs be any different?
Import bans, like we have on Chinese EVs in the US. The US already restricts other countries access to Huawei hardware
This is another example where we might ask "why would it be any different?"
I've got to wonder how long the US will still be able get much of the world to go along with requests like this. Europe is already showing some spine and refused to join Trump's war with Iran, and Italy and Spain have also recently shown Trump the middle finger.
It'd be ironic if Europe ended up banning ASML (a Dutch company) from shipping to US instead!
>It'd be ironic if Europe ended up banning ASML (a Dutch company) from shipping to US instead!
ASML's Dutch EUV machines depend on importing US made EUV light sources from California to build them, and depends on sales of their machines to the US to stay afloat since they're not exactly flying off the shelves domestically.
So maybe the EU is not that stupid and suicidal to cripple their economy further by cutting off one of their biggest pay-piggies for no reason.
In fact, as an anecdote to your hypothetically scenario, the US is the one with the most leverage since if they want, they can ban the export of EUV light sources to ASML and sell them instead to Canon and Nikon, sinking ASML and propping up Japan's semi industry instead, if relations sour and they see Japan as a warmer ally than the EU. Hypothetical.
Isn't Cymer actually owned by ASML - push come to shove couldn't they just leave the US ?
FYI, the US is only 10-15% of ASML's sales. The bulk of their machines go to China, Taiwan and South Korea.
>Isn't Cymer actually owned by ASML
It's on US soil and subject to US laws and export controls. That's all that matters.
FYI, Nikon and Canon don't rely on ASML-owned Cymer anymore - they use a domestic Japanese supplier instead, Gigaphoton.
Nikon and Canon (gigaphoton) don't have EUV (yet)
SCOTUS shutting down Trump's Tantrum Tariffs gave everyone a little breathing room
Mark Carney said earlier today at the EU, "the goal is not self-sufficiency, but collective resilience." It is through collective action that they can find more resilience to our American Antics.