> late last year/early this year

That's an eternity when it comes to coding models.

In my personal experience, we've had almost a step change every ~3 months this year, at least for bigger one-shot tasks. For example looking at Gemini Flash 3.0 vs 3.5 vs 3.8, it went 5% -> 30% -> 75% on DeepSWE, all since the start of the year.