Their economic policy article is quite good:
- need for faster, better and more accurate measurements of the things we care about
- 3 scenarios of impact ranging from mild to major disruption
- mild policies are all sensible, like expanded unemployment insurance and Earned Income Tax Credit
- major disruption policies are also pretty logical, emphasizing owning a share of the profits of AI
- AI evaluators to sort and weigh the policies for their effectiveness
It looks like to me a lot of thinking, research, and work put into the piece.
I know people will gripe at using AI evaluators to score and weigh policies for effectiveness but if you read any amount of research papers, they do researcher evaluated scoring, which translates to "me, a 26 year old PHD candidate who hasn't held a job yet, and my roommate who stayed up all night with me to tell me his vibes on the subject".
It is IMO wrong and lazy to dismiss these pieces as being the same level as Dario or Sam's blog posts / speeches / call to actions, these are actual research papers.
"these are actual research papers."
Not in any sense of that term are these research papers. Not lazy, sure, but a couple conceptual tables does not a research paper make.
The economic article is a summary of a preprint paper that surveyed thousands of Americans. Seems like a research paper to me, but I don’t know economics well. Am I missing something?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7470000
A summary of a research article isn't a research article. Do you think newspapers are scholarly journals? Also, you do understand that anyone can just upload a document to SSRN, right? "Preprint" doesn't actually mean anything academically. Also, the methodology of that paper is absurd: Google trained a model and then asked that model what it thought about AI policy. Can you not think of any way bias might be less than controlled for doing it this way?
The profits of AI will itself will probably be small though. Most of the benefits of the extreme scenarios will probably accrue to normal capital owners-- basically, the useless landowner.
Consequently things like "Sovereign AI dividends" and the like won't matter in the extreme cases. Profits on a scale that matters for society AI itself will only be a thing in an intermediate scenario which will probably only be real for an incredibly short time.
> mild policies are all sensible, like expanded unemployment insurance and Earned Income Tax Credit
And what about for the rest of the world? What do you do with all the people in middle income countries that don't have an economic and tax structure like the US?
If you read the article lots of these policies originate or are modeled after other countries policies. The us isn’t exactly a shining beacon welfare state.
Sorry, I've spent more than two decades living in mostly developing countries. I don't see much here from or for the 75% of the world population that lives in middle income countries that are trying to achieve high income status.
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