"are priced according to the narrative that they have produced or will in the very near future produce a fully automated drop-in replacement for most knowledge workers, "
No, they're really not.
They're priced in a way that would imply AI will be universal form of compute, alongside traditional deterministic systems - which it will be.
And that they will capture most of that ... which they won't.
The Frontier Labs are a very bad buy at a high price, but that partly has to do with wacky pricing, but actually mostly has to do with their relatively weak place in the value chain.
The money is going to Nvidia, who have the most powerful position.
A bit like how a retailer can take all the margins of some innovative product, if they own the channel.
AI is over-hyped, the Frontier Labs are over priced - but AI is here to stay, and will grow. Not like Skynet, but like a new form of compute. And it will take it's time, and the profits will be reaped by those with the power.
ai has a >10% chance of causing human extinction, according to anthropic big heads.
if that's true, you are wrong.
if that's false, anthropic is dishonest. why trust a dishonest company to be worth anything?
> if that's false, anthropic is dishonest. why trust a dishonest company to be worth anything?
This logic doesn't follow at all.
If their argument is that there is 10% chance of extinction then they also believe there is a 90% chance it won't.
I think that the AI people believe in their own nonsense a bit.
Like - the guy on TV talking about 'AI will destroy everything' ... I don't think he's lying.
I think they are like we here on HN and Reddit and a bit caught up in our own thoughts.
If AI were unleashed, in raw form today, it could cause havoc.
Bad. Maybe very bad but I think we'd get over it.
It would probably trigger a recession (because we are in a bubble - it would pop it), and people would 'blame the AI' for sure.
But it would be a bit dot-com ish kind of recession.
The amplifiers would be geopolitical instability.
>If AI were unleashed, in raw form today, it could cause havoc.
What is "raw form?"
The SOTA models are heavily 'guardrailed' today; they won't let you do all sorts of things.