Sub 1300 that's my rating in the singular official tournament I participated at.
But given how easily I can crush them and how often they want to make illegal moves (btw above bench seems to use a harness that pokea the model until it gives valid moves).
I would rate them around 500-800 big range but at that level it's all about if the model can recall an opening or not. If it plays good first 4-8 moves the person on the end will fumble for certain and they win.
I can play good/best moves till 14-15 moves if I remember the lines and find someone who falls for it.
If you could give them the lines as prompts like the best 20-30 openings then they will be around 700-800.
700 is around the rating for a human who doesn't know the tricks but can do bare minimum calculations and understands the rules thoroughly.
As someone who used to compete for years and plays currently as a hobbyist, you’re absolutely correct. LLM’s are terrible at chess and if anyone wants to sober up their view on AI, try it yourself.
Anyone who casually plays on a regular basis can beat them more often than they lose. As you said if you just know the core openings (and end games, both of which you can get a handle on with modest effort) you will generally win.
Edit: reminder we had computers beating the best players in the world literally decades ago. LLM’s are remarkable tools but the current promises and expectations are ridiculous