> If you had asked 100 people in 2010 whether they would see AI that could actually pass the Turing test in their lifetimes, you would have got 100 "no"s.
There's no way that's accurate.
We already had big claims of the Turing test being passed in 2014, by a bot that had been doing almost as well for years.
There were plenty of people expecting fusion in their lifetimes too and that's going okay.
> We already had big claims of the Turing test being passed in 2014
Nah there was that bullshit Loebner prize or whatever, but that was just shitty chatbots being "judged" by people asking questions like "how are you today?" and then being breathlessly reported by the press. It was a publicity stunt.
Perhaps I should have said "100 people well-informed about AI".
From what I can find of early 2000s predictions, plenty of informed people saw good odds of strong AI by 2050.