They should also be able to give detailed reasons experts in the relevant fields can verify as to how they arrived at a 10% chance all humanity goes extinct. Not a science fiction narrative which likely does not take into account the relevant physical facts limiting such scenarios. Such as how exactly an AI would build a bioweapon capable of killing 8 billion humans across the planet.

This tool is not known for "how exactly" to be a question people can answer.

And answering it in detail is giving tools to people who may want to do it.

"releasing a very transmittable and deadly respiratory virus with long incubation period" is just one of many ways.

What do you think of the AI-2027 scenario?