Most larger businesses are kinda resistant to building stuff in house since it means that stuff has to be owned and maintained for as long as its needed (possibly decades) and you can't just rely on a SLA and the legal team to ensure things are working in perpetuity.
The danger of vibe coded SaaS:es isn't the customer building the thing themselves, but that the increased competition drives down the profit margin.
At least for now, not everybody can make a private SaaS. Doing that requires skills and focus. Even with SOTA models, as of ~today, there are inflection points where the AI would not be able to make the right choice without a knowledgable human, or would cycle and waste time with things that don't matter, etc.
Not really true tbh. Plenty of 50 year old business guys with less than zero technical ability making saas startups over months of focused chats with LLMs. Of course they're slower at making stuff and the projects are worse than a smart engineer, but they can definitely ship and run to thousands of real customers.
"not everybody" vs "50 year old business guys...months of focused chats" - I don't think you're really disagreeing here? That's also a niche population. One that knows their domain very well, absolutely, personally I think it's cool that they can DIY what they need. But still a niche population. That's not your proverbial 20year old kid right out of school with ADHD pumping out world class software.
Aside - is AI still DIY? We need a new DAIY category for AI empowered works?
No they don't know the domain at all. I think one of the startups brings in around $10K a month now. They know nothing about the domain only that it brings in money (i.e. they run thousands of startup "tests" and this one seemed to be easiest to make money from), and even less about code (have no idea what a variable is).
I just think devs are coping by thinking that saas startups have any barrier to entry at all. You are now competing with every single person on the planet who wants to make money sitting at home on a computer, and likely the business guy with zero skill or craftsmanship is going to beat you.
The only thing with barrier to entry is insanely complex software (e.g., what used to take a genius team of 10 multiple years to make) and or more creative software like video games (where you need extreme care and taste to get something anyone will look at for > 2 hours).
Average saas products require no skill or craftsmanship and literally anyone including our grandmas can make it (assuming they will take a few months at least to chat with an LLM). To be clear I think this is great! More better software, people with smaller needs can have llms build it for them totally bespoke. For those of us with skills we have to move WAY out of our old comfort zone and make way cooler things, a standard saas that takes a few months isn't something we should waste our time on anymore.
Yeah. This makes sense. Someone who can dedicate a lot of time to scaling a SaaS serving many customers are helped a lot by AI. I believe busy professionals who already have successful businesses won't have the focus to build a one-off solution for their own needs a lot of the time.
> they can definitely ship and run to thousands of real customers
Each of those customers, who also have access to LLMs and can therefore bypass his LLM built service by making their own LLM built service. Cameras in phones didn't turn everyone into a professional photographer, it gave everyone the ability to take pics, as badly composited as they are, they fulfill their purpose. On the few life occasions where a professional is needed, you don't go for a smartphone-based photographer, you go for an old school professional photographer. I think software will be the same. These 50 year olds won't be selling to anyone. And if they are, it won't be for long.
There is a small web service I need with a price tag of $39 one time payment. I’m current doing it myself for the last 1.5 hours, because I thought it would be fun. 2 minutes ago I upgraded to $120 subscription of Codex.
Reasonable thing was to pay $39 and forget about it.
Removing dependency on SaaS has so far been my favorite use of AI. I hope we kill it off entirely. Software is better off as a tool. Making it a product typically ruins it.
Most larger businesses are kinda resistant to building stuff in house since it means that stuff has to be owned and maintained for as long as its needed (possibly decades) and you can't just rely on a SLA and the legal team to ensure things are working in perpetuity.
The danger of vibe coded SaaS:es isn't the customer building the thing themselves, but that the increased competition drives down the profit margin.
At least for now, not everybody can make a private SaaS. Doing that requires skills and focus. Even with SOTA models, as of ~today, there are inflection points where the AI would not be able to make the right choice without a knowledgable human, or would cycle and waste time with things that don't matter, etc.
Not really true tbh. Plenty of 50 year old business guys with less than zero technical ability making saas startups over months of focused chats with LLMs. Of course they're slower at making stuff and the projects are worse than a smart engineer, but they can definitely ship and run to thousands of real customers.
"not everybody" vs "50 year old business guys...months of focused chats" - I don't think you're really disagreeing here? That's also a niche population. One that knows their domain very well, absolutely, personally I think it's cool that they can DIY what they need. But still a niche population. That's not your proverbial 20year old kid right out of school with ADHD pumping out world class software.
Aside - is AI still DIY? We need a new DAIY category for AI empowered works?
No they don't know the domain at all. I think one of the startups brings in around $10K a month now. They know nothing about the domain only that it brings in money (i.e. they run thousands of startup "tests" and this one seemed to be easiest to make money from), and even less about code (have no idea what a variable is).
I just think devs are coping by thinking that saas startups have any barrier to entry at all. You are now competing with every single person on the planet who wants to make money sitting at home on a computer, and likely the business guy with zero skill or craftsmanship is going to beat you. The only thing with barrier to entry is insanely complex software (e.g., what used to take a genius team of 10 multiple years to make) and or more creative software like video games (where you need extreme care and taste to get something anyone will look at for > 2 hours).
Average saas products require no skill or craftsmanship and literally anyone including our grandmas can make it (assuming they will take a few months at least to chat with an LLM). To be clear I think this is great! More better software, people with smaller needs can have llms build it for them totally bespoke. For those of us with skills we have to move WAY out of our old comfort zone and make way cooler things, a standard saas that takes a few months isn't something we should waste our time on anymore.
Yeah. This makes sense. Someone who can dedicate a lot of time to scaling a SaaS serving many customers are helped a lot by AI. I believe busy professionals who already have successful businesses won't have the focus to build a one-off solution for their own needs a lot of the time.
> Aside - is AI still DIY?
No, it's not at all DIY. I cringe any time I see someone say "I made X" and it's vibe coded, because they haven't actually made anything.
> they can definitely ship and run to thousands of real customers
Each of those customers, who also have access to LLMs and can therefore bypass his LLM built service by making their own LLM built service. Cameras in phones didn't turn everyone into a professional photographer, it gave everyone the ability to take pics, as badly composited as they are, they fulfill their purpose. On the few life occasions where a professional is needed, you don't go for a smartphone-based photographer, you go for an old school professional photographer. I think software will be the same. These 50 year olds won't be selling to anyone. And if they are, it won't be for long.
Is every 50 year old business guy doing it? If not then OPs comment holds. He said not everyone can, not that only devs can use it, which is true.
This is like the "Now everyone can just 3D print little widgets they need!" sentiment. Approximately no one is going to do this.
There is a small web service I need with a price tag of $39 one time payment. I’m current doing it myself for the last 1.5 hours, because I thought it would be fun. 2 minutes ago I upgraded to $120 subscription of Codex.
Reasonable thing was to pay $39 and forget about it.
As much as I hate subscriptions, one time payment for ongoing access to a web service never lasts.
Removing dependency on SaaS has so far been my favorite use of AI. I hope we kill it off entirely. Software is better off as a tool. Making it a product typically ruins it.
Software is fine as a product, it is when it becomes a service that it sucks
People pay for good tools. Tools help create value, and if they are good at creating value the toolmaker should be compensated.
If so, people can just pay Anthropic or OpenAI directly. They are great toolmakers.
This is exactly how it works. I said “AI make it rain” and now I run multiple international businesses.