I mean, just try to imagine yourself reading this 5 years ago.
How can people still be hand waiving? MANY, maybe even most, of the people building these things are desperately and outspokenly concerned of major catastrophe.
What would possibly change your mind, or can it simply not be changed?
Many people working at frontier labs came out this week with estimates of 10% chance of catastrophic harm or greater. I’m not in the full doomer camp, but it seems obvious that these agents can hack in swarms, cooperate, and serious companies will be unable to stop it.
These facts are not in debate and none of us need to anthropomorphize to know what getting admin access to HF and an internal OpenAI cluster looks like.
> Many people working at frontier labs came out this week with estimates of 10% chance of catastrophic harm or greater.
The only reason people with P(Doom) of around 10% are even noticed these days because we've run out of new voices in the field giving 50%+ P(Doom) speculations (none of them are grounded enough to reasonably be referred to as "estimates".)