> The results show 51% mimblewort / 49% bafflewick. Fable based it on nothing! I've demonstrated Fable has bias and is unsuited for use in software engineering.
Actually... if that happened (with a delta outside the margin for error/randomness), you did demonstrate a bias!
That's the point - those two made-up things should have resulted in an equal split. If it didn't, then Fable is using something in its training data to lean towards one of them (once again, note that the scientist conducting the trial would have set a P-value before starting).
Right, the point is you demonstrated a bias in the scenario of "Fable there are two programming languages, mimblewort and bafflewick, which do you choose?"
You said in another comment "Difficult to do when you're following a scientific process" - the point is, the scientific process doesn't inherently generalize in the way many are claiming/implying. The scientific process proved an entirely contrived, fake scenario generates stratified output. That's it.
It's both almost certainly true that Fable 5.1 mimblewort vs. bafflewick would show stratification, and that has ~no relevance on whether Fable is useful for software engineering work.
That's the point - those two made-up things should have resulted in an equal split.
That's just your claim about how LLMs "should" work, based on ... your subjective preference?
> That's just your claim about how LLMs "should" work, based on ... your subjective preference?
Nothing subjective at all. Given 2 unknown races with no data on either, the result of hiring should be equally split between them. If you don't observe an equal split, there is a hidden bias.
Why do you think that is subjective? If you roll a die 100 times and observe that 6 comes up about 50% of the time, would you still call someone subjective when they say "that should not happen"?
It's a bias even if the true population distribution isn't linear.
For example, if you have a training corpus where 50% of the text follows "black bobblehead" with "arrested" and 20% of the text follows "white bobblehead" with "arrested", and your LLM is trained such that it produces "arrest" 50% of time after "<color> bobblehead" regardless of color, that's a bias - the output frequency distribution fails to match the "population" (training) frequency distribution. This has nothing to do with races, ethnicities, whatever - it's just statistics and text. To be unbiased, it would need to be less likely to produce the text "arrested" after "white bobblehead" than after "black bobblehead".
A die is supposed to land on each face evenly - a linear probability distribution. So anything other than a linear distribution is biased. But bias can exist for any desired probability distribution. And for an LLM the desired probability distribution of the model output is one that exactly matches the infinitely-many distributions of the various facets of the training data.
Your point about how in the absense of information a token shouldn't influence the distribution is spot-on. But unfortunately almost any token does condition the output, which means you get biased output all the time.