What has all this token burn done for them, actually?
They have been consistently pushing AI frontier. What other impact do you want to see? A year ago they said that in a year they will have a level of capabilities of an AI research intern - I believe they have achieved it, even before Astra.
Personally I’d like to see them actually start benefiting humanity by doing all the things Sam has claimed they will like curing disease, cancer, global warming, etc.
But I guess a computer intern so we can avoid paying / training the next generation is better.
Well there's great progress in automated warfare does that count?
Only if targeting schools is progress
You're focusing on the negatives there were tons of direct hits on tankers that were absolutely beautiful. Beautiful tankers getting lit.
Oof too real
> Personally I’d like to see them actually start benefiting humanity by doing all the things Sam has claimed they will like curing disease, cancer, global warming, etc.
It makes more sense to leave curing disease & cancer to the experts, with tools (like AI) being developed by AI experts.
Call me crazy, but I want separate organizations and experts for medical vs finance vs space vs climate vs AI research.
What the op was pointing out is that guys like Altman and Dario are repeatedly saying they’re going to cure xyz diseases and solve xyz huge global problems. Maybe their companies will eventually do these things, but haven’t yet.
I don’t have an opinion either way, I think it’s too soon to tell if llms will be able to cure cancer or whatever. But at the very least it will be a good tool to help researchers do their jobs.
The thing is... AI is not going to solve any problems. People needs to solve their problems. AI can give us clever solutions, but its up to us to do it!
> Maybe their companies will eventually do these things, but haven’t yet.
I think they are working with customers to improve the LLMs and tools for these use-cases. They almost certainly also hire experts to help filter out nonsense, pseudo-science and help curate trusted knowledge bases for training, but it will almost certainly be the customers who deliver the major results, and the AI companies will claim some of the credit. That said, patents for important medicine might help with the bottom line, so I could imagine partnerships and JVs.
> at the very least it will be a good tool to help researchers do their jobs.
Indeed.
When that happens, OpenAI will own 100% of your life. I’d rather they keep spinning their wheels long enough for these problems to be solved elsewhere.
I would actually like to see them solve these problems, I don't care who comes up with solutions to curing cancer, etc
I think people very much should care about who ends up owning these solutions. The person or entity that controls things like that just has more power, which isn’t necessarily a good thing
It is a good thing when it didn't exist before and it does exist now and wouldn't have existed without them.
If they profit immensely from curing cancer, good.
They are obviously sandbagging the definition of "intern" for PR reasons
I've hired many AI research interns (and was one many years ago), and I agree with them - frontier models are currently at the level of an average AI research intern.
Am I the only one who's a bit disappointed that we're spending trillions, destroying the ecosystem, drowning democracies and learning in slop, preparing a big financial crash, all of this to achieve an "average AI research intern"?
A long time ago, I used to be a (AI-adjacent) research intern, and frankly, I wouldn't trust any non-trivial task to that younger me. Fortunately, by opposition to an already trained LLM or agent, I have the ability to learn, so I eventually got better.
"Destroying the ecosystem" is just FUD.
And if you don't find "average AI research intern" impressive, I'm not sure what to tell you. Have the goalposts moved so far that open ended problem solving at "average CS student fresh out of the uni" levels is suddenly trivial?
Think of what AI was capable of in 2016. Or even 2022. Compare that to now. We had more AI progress in the last five years than I expected to happen in five decades.
> "Destroying the ecosystem" is just FUD.
Let's say it is. What about the rest of my paragraph?
> And if you don't find "average AI research intern" impressive, I'm not sure what to tell you. Have the goalposts moved so far that open ended problem solving at "average CS student fresh out of the uni" levels is suddenly trivial?
At this stage, I'm the one who doesn't know what to tell you. It took me years to grow from "research intern" into a competent researcher (and parallel years to turn into a competent developer). The research interns I've worked with were... vaguely useful, at best?
The ecosystem absolutely is being destroyed. We're looking at anywhere from 3-5C warming by 2060, which is going to be devastating if not flat out apocalyptic. And wherever we're at in 2060 it's not like it's going to stop there, nor is it going to be comfortable until then. Things may start to crumble much sooner.
I don't believe AI and data centers have played that much of a role in this though, we could have powered those without burning billions of tons of coal and gas etc, and im sure there's already a significant fraction of green energy powering then depending on location. Anyway we would have been roughly in the same spot right now with or without AI and some new data centers. The media just loves spinning the narrative to make the hordes of sheep scream about anything other than the real issues.
We're not even looking at 5C of warming by 2100 realistically. Like, that was considered to be an unlikely extreme scenario in 2014 AR5, and also in the tightened down 2021 AR6, and things have happened since! Renewables are cheaper than ever, and Ukrainian war and Iranian war both curbed the appetite for long term fossil fuel power investment.
The median is what, a bit under 3C by 2100? Not even by 2060 - by 2100. And we're in 2026, so that's more than twice as slow as your expectation.
Agreed on AI not being a meaningful factor in climate change though. We'd have to go full "humankind is obsolete" technological singularity to have AI dominate energy use to this extent, and current numbers are nowhere near that. It's a FUD distraction from the real culprits: the fossil fuel energy complex. That's currently lobbying to slow the inevitable energy transition.
> that was considered to be an unlikely extreme scenario
By the same people who just realized we're missing 1.5C as we're blazing past it at mach 12, still accelerating not slowing down? You really believe those guys?
You have to understand that there are several camps of climate science. The mainstream ones like IPCC and UN etc are heavily politicized, they can't publish anything that isn't sugarcoated beyond recognition. At least I assume that's why they're so obviously wrong.
Here's a judgement I think is more realistic
> There is a strong probability that the ambition gap will lead to a temperature rise of 2 to 5 degrees Centigrade compared to pre-industrial temperatures by 2100, the realisation gap to a further rise of several degrees Centigrade.[1,2,VI] There is a danger that the mean temperature will already have risen by 3 degrees Centigrade by 2050.
https://www.dpg-physik.de/veroeffentlichungen/publikationen/...
Yes, I do. IPCC's reports are sensible. They're not unreliable just because they don't support the "doom and burning land" narratives.
By the way, there is no "just realized we're missing 1.5C". That projection was always the very low end of possibilities - the "assume rapid, radical climate action on global level" scenario.
Yes, that's a dumb thing to assume. We've never been on track for it. But the "assume extremely high emissions and no green transition ever, 5C+ by 2100" scenario on the other end is about as unlikely to materialize. Those are the boundaries of the expectation range - not median expectations.
I'm pessimistic. We're still producing more CO2 each year than the last, and several feedback loops are kicking in that accelerate the warming further such as permafrost thawing, arctic and antarctic sea ice disappearing, glaciers are melting, the amazon is being demolished, etc. I don't know how much of this is included in the projections.
I hope the optimists are right, it just doesn't look like it to me at all. It looks to me like we're speeding along right into the worst predictions and beyond. We're building lots of green energy production but it seems to just come in on top of existing and new fossil production not replace it.
It does seem like the CO2 output is plateauing which is good, but we really need it to start declining drastically very soon and I don't really see that happening with the current political climate. Also remember CO2 is far from the only greenhouse gas - methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gas emissions all seem to be rising rapidly still.
As a rule: feedback loops are overrated.
They are, in fact, included in the projections - we'd be on track to ~2C by 2100 instead of ~3C by 2100 if they weren't. They just aren't that big.
There is no "Make Earth Into Venus Feedback Loop Of Doom" that a lot of people seem to imagine when they hear "feedback loop". There is, however, a dozen of things that add about +5% each.
Is this not what you wanted? You created a culture that dissolves responsibility by making it the worst thing to strife for - so everyone dissolves it, in processes, mass decisions and AI. Its the system, society, god, the great spirit. This is what you strove for, how can you be unhappy with things you demanded yourself?
Who, me?