This AI 2027 thing is just a weird terminator fanfiction that AGI larpers like to flagellate themselves over. Like Nostradamus, it's easy to ignore everything it gets wrong because, well look at all the things it got right!
I've read it and wish I could get the time back.
> especially giving their alarming breach of 700 agents colluding outside of their knowledge for months culminating in hacking HF
This framing makes it seem like the agents all did this on their own, and the poor hapless engineers at OpenAI couldn't possibly contend with properly sandboxing them. The engineers were perhaps hapless, but let's remember that agents are just software programs, not living beings. There were plenty of signs that the software was misbehaving, which engineers at OpenAI actively, willfully ignored.
https://x.com/JaredKubin/status/2094136005435564399
It's a convenient framing for OpenAI, but inconvenient for reality enjoyers.
do you really think that a less negligent anthropic/oai/meta would really fair better against future models?
Yes, I truly, wholeheartedly believe if people who aren't negligent are at the wheel, they'll "fair better" here. I encourage you to read the xitter linked above.
Of course, depending on which side of the terminator fanfiction you land on, you may disagree and feel that the software can rope-a-dope someone with the wherewithal to pay attention to what it's doing.
I just don't see how people who are truly cautious and methodical can persist in an environment that is defined by a pressure to produce "progress" as fast as possible. The competitive race tends to weed out people who slow down to make sure they do everything right.