A new base model mac mini is $900. That is 45 month of Gemini. Gemini 4.7 Flash will give better OCR results that Qwen or GLM w/ 10GB.
A new base model mac mini is $900. That is 45 month of Gemini. Gemini 4.7 Flash will give better OCR results that Qwen or GLM w/ 10GB.
That doesn't help with the not wanting to send confidential information to a cloud though. No amount of cost savings can negate that.
100% this. No way I'm giving Google my stuff.
Neither openai or xai. Anthropic maybe but not likely. Mistral is the most likely one because they're under the EU laws but I think they focus more on commercial these days.
having a 64GB mac mini m4 pro the last few years with some increasingly capable usefulness has kept me interested in this stuff in a way that using a paid platform wouldn't have. Similar to running K8s in a homelab, something about interacting with the hardware makes it more engaging/interesting, for me at least.
In general, I'm a big believer in doing more with fewer resources, within reason, and think having local setups really helps me be mindful with what's happening under the hood with these systems and managing context efficiently to get high quality results.
I guess it depends on what you're trying to do. I've run a few LLMs on my 64gig Mac but anything image or video related is ridiculously slow compared to even old NVidia on my PC.
Have you been using an MTP setup? I've been having pretty good luck with the Qwen models with the built in MTP heads via https://mtplx.com at around Q4. My main driver rig is an M5 Max MBP work got for me a few weeks ago. Hitting 1000-1200 TPS prefill on Qwen 3.8-Flash-Next there.
Do you believe Gemini will costs the same in 45 months or even exist, given Google track record ?
The options available across the board are getting cheaper and better all the time.
There is no reason to believe that equivalent level model output will be more expensive in 12 months, let alone almost 4 years from now.
Of all the good reasons to use local AI (privacy, etc), worrying about not having access to cheap models in 4 years is not one of them.
> There is no reason to believe that equivalent level model output will be more expensive in 12 months
It's almost never a drop-in replacement, and having to check and adjust integrations and workflows with new models gets old fast. My task was perfectly solved by the old model, I don't need a newer, "better" one - especially at higher prices ("more cost-effective" my foot). Local models lets one choose a model and freeze the downstream integrations forever, without being forced on the 6/8-month upgrade treadmill by aggressively short, scarcity-driven hosted model-deprecation schedules.
The big providers are losing on average tens of billions a year on these services, so yes prices must go up. Even Moore’s won’t help in the medium-term due to shortages and difficulty/reluctance to vastly increase capacity.
You can buy tokens on OpenRouter right now from companies who serve tokens as a business and who are not selling at a loss.
The frontier labs have very high prices for inference. The prices are actually going down, not up.
I thought the discussion was about "frontier labs" in the cloud versus open at home.
Others running open models in the cloud is a nice third alternative, but not a solution for those that need frontier models, which I believe continue to need training as well as inference. These are currently heavily subsidized and hardware constrained several years out.
Surely you cannot possibly believe there is no reason.
Don't get me wrong: I hope you are right, and I am generally optimistic about the future of AI.
But do you really think, in a world filled with examples of big software companies repeatedly taking away or hamstringing capabilities we've taken for granted, that you can just count on a big tech company hosting cheap inference on incredibly powerful models forever? Surely we have learned by now that these companies do not exist to provide a public service to us, and the government cannot always be counted on to have the best interests of the citizens in mind.
I mean, how many times have we seen this in just the past decade or two?
- Consistent attempts to pass legislation weakening or banning the use of encryption
- Exorbitant Reddit API pricing (still salty about the death of the amazing Apollo app)
- Google fighting against sideloading on android
- US gov't issuing export control directive to suspend access to Fable/Mythos
- US lawmakers considering ways to regulate adoption of open weight models
- Chinese officials considering restricting overseas access to their most advanced models
I can absolutely see a much more restricted, closed down, and expensive future due to a combination of government regulations (regardless of which nation is doing it) and big companies rug-pulling as the check comes due on all the billions of dollars spent to get here.
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Models equivalent to current version of gemini will likely be much, much cheaper, maybe even something like 100x cheaper.
Two thoughts.
A $20/month Gemini subscription is truly all you need, then yeah, sure.... obviously a homelab setup is a ridiculous alternative on a pure cost basis. For most people doing "real" work with LLMs 40+ hours per week, a more apt comparison would be one or multiple $200/month subscriptions. At which point the break-even point of a homelab is much sooner.
However, most people running homelabs are doing it for other reasons. Independence, learning, and/or privacy issues.
I love this quote from a homelab reddit:
- Is that even worth the electricity price compared to api? - We don't ask that here
This is such a tired argument and it seems to be parroted every single time someone talks about local models on hacker news.
Yes, of course the most economical path is to hand over all your data and become fully dependent on a cloud provider who is already operating as scale, hoping that they won't change/remove models, hamstring capabilities, or raise prices.
If this were a thread about hosting your own email or blog or cloud photos, you'd have plenty of people out here telling you how easy it is to do it yourself instead of relying on Gmail for email or WordPress/Medium/Substack for blogging, or iCloud for cloud photos.
And yet, without fail, every single thread about self hosting local models seems to have some copy/paste form of this cost-savings argument.
Where is the appreciation for this cool thing GP built? Where is the appreciation for the desire to figure out how to host your own version of the incredible capabilities that were not available merely a few years ago? And why, on this site of all places, would someone advocate trading all of the knowledge and independence gained from learning how to host something like this ourselves in favor of throwing it all over the wall to Google?
Come on.
It's quite shocking to me how many experienced, tech-savvy people, who used to care about cookies and ad tracking - are now willingly sending their business strategies, highly confidential contracts, and intimate personal issues to a cloud provider because "it is only $0.0x per million tokens!".
> It's quite shocking to me how many experienced, tech-savvy people, who used to care about cookies and ad tracking - are now willingly sending their business strategies, highly confidential contracts, and intimate personal issues to a cloud provider because "it is only $0.0x per million tokens!".
Because there are more privacy guarantees there, depending on the provider. "But what if they violate their contract!" is some pretty tin-foil hat stuff.
How is this any different than a business running their website out of the cloud, assuming you are using a provider with appropriate contractual terms?
You can care about tracking and ads but still be comfortable storing your backups in the cloud, and many have been for quite awhile, even sometimes without encryption - that is totally different than e.g. Meta actively trying to track you and understand your relationship graph and your purchases etc.
The foundation of the businesses training AI models.
So don't use them for inference.
I'm not sure about the tin-foil-hattedness of worrying about them violating their contract. But that's by-the-by. It is definitely not tin-foil-hat to worry about the data being taken in a breach.
It's no different than generally using AWS.
i think you overestimate the number of tech-savvy people who ever cared about cookies and ad tracking.
I don’t understand the willingness to give up privacy so easily, particularly if you are developing something that you plan to monetize somewhere down the road.
I’m pretty sure that all of those disclaimers that all the AI model makers have for you to sign off on to say that they’re not responsible for anything that might go wrong if your work gets copied accidentally and used someplace else wink wink?
You know the lawsuits for that particular aspect are incoming in the future…
Yeah I use it for hobby only. I would use cloud models to develop new stuff, I don't really care if it gets lost because if I were to publish it it would be FOSS anyway. I hate entrepreneurism and monetisation so I'm happiest being a salaried employee with many hobbies :)
But no way whatsoever I'm uploading my personal files, photos, emails, chats into cloud AI. No way.
I think the price is beyond that though. AFAICT, there's not competitively fast image or video generation on Mac. To buy it will cost me $4000-$12000. So I rent.
And everybody knows advertising is just around the corner.
It will be horrible to be dependent on an AI who is also be trying to sell you various goods and services.
We're going to need AI whose loyalty is to us and only us.
Yes but I also get a full fledged computer in the deal. I can sell it later. I can use it for all sorts of things like games and browsing and video editing. Paying for Gemini for other tasks is also in the mix but at the end of 4 years I get...nothing.
...
> They are things that I would not be comfortable sending a cloud provider
It's also an old machine that the commenter already has; it's intellectually dishonest to compare it to the price of a brand new, 4-iteration-newer machine.
except
a) model I pick will not 'suddenly' go away
b) I am sure my data stays where I want it
c) my inference mac can run other things if I need to
I pay for that.