If you learnt to build a browser in 2000 you're probably doing well for yourself lol.
Not a lot of demand, but also probably not a lot of supply.
If you learnt to build a browser in 2000 you're probably doing well for yourself lol.
Not a lot of demand, but also probably not a lot of supply.
For this example, if you built a browser in 2000 it would put you in a great position to launch android in 2008. I think this is pg’s point. You spend all this time learning the interesting bits and when an inflection comes along that makes a new product or service possible you could be the one to likely launch it
That’s like saying if you can dunk in 8th grade you could be the next LeBron James. A LOT more things have to fall perfectly in place at the perfect time for that end result to materialize.
Each new bet will be expensive and depend less on technical merit than luck and having a backup so your family doesn't starve.
Agree.
FWIW I built browsers from 1999 for a long time. (But I was never a wunderkind, just somewhat tenaciously curious).
And I guess I am doing fine, but not amazingly rich or so.
Browsers were always a project closer to research/charity. I think Marc Andreessen said something similar - that he would never do that again. B2B is where you can make money.
I am talking from the perspective of the individual developer.
You don't need your impressive product to succeed to land a good career.
If Alice is doing LLM-from-scratch work today, and Bob is doing agent harness work today, Bob's project is far more likely than Alice's to become useful/popular/profitable.
But if neither project survives, in 5 years, Alice will be more employable/at a higher market rate than Bob.
Neither one has even gone to college yet. I’d expect Alice’s project to be more likely to interest professors, get some undergrad research experience, maybe that can turn into something.
This was his point. Being prepare to launch a produce when the opportunity comes.
There is an entire graveyward of browsers, almost all that didn't die are now forgotten.
Sure, but I'm sure most of their lead devs are well paid now.
In general C++ work and similar, if not in Chrome development.
cause != effect
There is a confounding variable, however -- the person is most likely a good dev. It stands to reason that they've had a decent career at least since then.
Yes but as a dev you are shaped by the projects you work on.
I think the point isn't that you'll necessarily build a great browser (or LLM), but the experience will benefit you in other ways.
Yup like you go far enought you will pick lots of transferable skills like data cleaning in the case of LLM, DOM parsing case of web browser or welding case of rocket.
If any were built by teenagers, I’d imagine those teenagers ended up with pretty good careers in technology?
For every wunderkind that has a long career there's also plenty who are overlooked or peak early.
Citation desperately needed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Ken Silverman
I think he's doing fine? Sure, he got out of the video game industry, but that's for young people to burn themselves out.
I don't mean he's destitute. Just that he's no longer exceptional, which is fine.
But you were trying to refute my point of:
> I’d imagine those teenagers ended up with pretty good careers in technology?
The guy you mentioned doesn't seem to have ended up with a bad career in technology?
Thanks for clarifying. I read it as exceptional careers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Silverman
Is this the guy you’re talking about?
Source: Sour Grapes