Unfortunately we don't really know anything about OpenRouter or Stripe's numbers. They're both private companies. AFAIK there really isn't much information publicly available about how profitable or not OpenRouter actually is, or whether it has a little or a lot of overhead. So I can't really say whether $7B is reasonable or inflated. It seems like an enormous number, and my hunch is like all the other enormous numbers floating around in the AI space it's probably inflated by the hype bubble. But we just don't know.

Broadly I agree with you. It seems like they have an in-demand product and there could be a sustainable business there at least in principle. But whether it's a $7B business or a $70M business I can't say.