The problem with this analogy (actually one of many) is that most people can make do with a cabinet that is literally identical to everyone else's. IKEA is great for that.
If you want software that is literally identical to what someone else is using then you don't need AI. You need a license to that software! That is just the traditional software model.
AI gives software that is bespoke with hundreds of decisions made, hidden from you, in the background. If it's a throwaway script, that's fine (and I don't mean to undersell this - this is a huge application). If you want a larger program that is going to form part of your business process then it will need at least some level of supervision from an actual expert.
I think the issue with your rebuttal is that companies think they have a very specific problem that needs solving, so they need bespoke software. Just read on the various HN posts where people complain about PMs moving things around for no reason other than justifying their jobs.
Yeah, the analogy is more applicable to reusable software that used to be hand-crafted. For example many enterprise systems like ERPs, CRMs, CMSs, etc.
Even in that space there is still plenty of hand-crafted solutions or customization to the enterprise-system that might as well be hand-crafted solutions.
> it will need at least some level of supervision from an actual expert.
An expert? An expert or two? Maybe a few experts? Sure, even that is a lot less than how many we use today. Therein lies the issue.