Your linked figure confirms that 2018 was cooler than things are today.
The chapter 11 temperature over view is concerning for the consequences:
The frequency and intensity of hot extremes will continue to increase and those of cold extremes will continue to decrease, at global and continental scales and in nearly all inhabited regions with increasing global warming levels.
This will be the case even if global warming is stabilized at 1.5°C.
Relative to present-day conditions, changes in the intensity of extremes would be at least double at 2°C, and quadruple at 3°C of global warming, compared to changes at 1.5°C of global warming.
The frequency of hot temperature extreme events will very likely increase nonlinearly with increasing global warming, with larger percentage increases for rarer events.
> Your linked figure confirms that 2018 was cooler than things are today.
So? what does that have to do with the question at hand? An 8 year change is irrelevant in the world of climate science. It's statistical noise in a system where cycles run for decades. Weather, not climate.
> The chapter 11 temperature over view is concerning for the consequences:
...and then you quote the part that says exactly what I explained to you, as some kind of counter-argument?
You will note that the part you quoted is, again, combining the types of extremes. They're not talking about just hot days.
I honestly do not understand this need to fatalize data. You don't have a counterargument (because what I said was factually true) so your only rebuttal is to wave your hands and say that it's all scary.
We can be honest -- the world is getting warmer -- and admit when the people predicting imminent death and destruction are exaggerating. This is good!
As the original poster you replied to, why do you think it's exaggeration to predict that people will die from increasingly strong heatwaves? This is already happening [0]. And: "For 2022, it was estimated that between 60,000 and 70,000 people in Europe died from heat (Ballester et al., 2023; Ballester et al., 2024)"
It's extremely hypocritical of you to accuse me of exaggerating when your own presentation of facts is selective and not-representative of what we are seeing globally. An El Niño will only exacerbate heatwaves in some parts of the planet over the next 24 months.
[0]: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-report-shows-2877-e...
[1]: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/observatory/topics/he...
You need to bring evidence, not press releases.
Your first link says that more people died this year, relative to predictions for this year, because of a single heat wave. This has ~nothing to do with the discussion at hand, and is a classic example of the sort of hyperbole I am talking about.
The second link says that heat events kill people in the UK. Fine. It links to a single paper claiming that:
> half of the heat-related deaths in Europe in the summer of 2022 have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Beck et al., 2024).
Regardless of the quality of the cited paper, this is a far cry from evidence of a trend.
> It's extremely hypocritical of you to accuse me of exaggerating when your own presentation of facts is selective and not-representative of what we are seeing globally.
You're literally exaggerating, right now. I quoted the latest IPCC report and told you factually what it says. You linked to a press release and a UK climate portal page that don't support what you're insuinating.
> This has nothing to do with the discussion at hand
This is a topic concerning El Niño. You acknowledge that the downstream consequences of El Niño effects is amplified heatwaves, presumably. Heatwaves already kill people in many continents globally. It stands to reason _strong_ heatwaves will probably raise mortality further; which is _directly related_ to my original comment.
I don't engage with people who aren't willing to be honest with what the data supports.
> I don't engage with people who aren't willing to be honest with what the data supports.
OK, whatever. But what was I dishonest about? Cite the figures. Should be pretty easy.
...oh, and by the way:
> You acknowledge that the downstream consequences of El Niño effects is amplified heatwaves, presumably.
In some places, sure. In others (i.e. the western pacific), it leads to regional cooling.
Let's at least get our facts straight.