I've always loved the ridiculousness of the "going dark" label when law enforcement can't access encrypted chats or a back door isn't built into a piece of software. When there are security cameras on the vast majority of houses, stop lights and in people's hands, and when so much meta data about people's associations are shared from Google, Facebook, any other social platform, how in the world can they say they are "going dark". How did they ever solve crimes before these things?

Yes, are there any data points to suggest that this arms race is balanced any differently than it ever has been throughout history?

The cops will find a way, the criminals will find a way. It's ultimately people v. people with access to the same level of technology.