It’s not that frontier providers won’t keep on making good/leading models.

It’s whether you absolutely need the latest capabilities (at the cost of very high prices, sending your data to them, and being totally at the whim of 2 companies, that can shut you off anytime for any reason).

With how good LLMs are already, there’s tons of tasks where not being at the absolute bleeding edge doesn’t matter, especially when you add cost/freedom/supply chain risk/not leaking your data.

Even more - there’s increasing number of companies that give you ability to post train open weight model yourself, for your own use case. Given how many of the gains today are from post training, if you post train it for your specific use case, you’re very likely get model that you own, that works for you as good as frontier, at the fraction of the cost.

That’s not something for an average Joe to do, but for any bigger business with big spent it’s only natural thing to look into. Just one example - cursor composer - that’s fine tuned kimi.

It’s not whether frontier labs will stop releasing models. It’s whether they can generate enough profit out of them. 2 years ago (even 1) they basically had monopoly and combined with demand explosion as capabilities exploded - valuations grew to insane levels. But math now looks different - they no longer have monopoly.