I don't think that anything you said is wrong but I also don't think that memory consumption is going back to the old baseline... well, ever.
Memory is just too useful now that you can use it to drive cars and write code.
I don't think that anything you said is wrong but I also don't think that memory consumption is going back to the old baseline... well, ever.
Memory is just too useful now that you can use it to drive cars and write code.
The problem is that is speculation and the market barriers are currently too high for losing business to be a threat. The two outcomes are (1) you overbuild, you end being wrong, you go bankrupt and lose everything or (2) you are right, but since you didn't overbuild, you lost out on some revenue, but demand still exists 3 years later and you didn't lose everything.
In any other business choosing (2) would mean someone else swoops in and steals all your business. It doesn't look like this is at all possible for memory fabs.
Well, the Chinese manufacturers are certainly coming, though CXMT seems to be being careful not to rock the boat, at least yet https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinese-cxmt... .
It makes sense, CXMT takes as much profit as possible, then use that money to build more capacity, ultimately becoming one of the biggest competitor (only?) to the cartel.
As of Q1 2026: 90% market share for the Big Three, 8% CXMT, 2% everyone else. And CXMT was only 3% Q1 2025.
People are happy to play with AI when the tech companies are burning hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize it. It remains to be seen who is actually willing to pay for it at the prices required to recoup those insane investments.
Which directly leads to the next big development: all the big players are investing in silicon with "baked-in" models, like [0,1]. Turns out you don't need an expensive general-purpose GPU with heaps of RAM to contain a model when you can make a custom ASIC around one specific model! Why spend a fortune on DRAM / HBM when all you need is some finetuning parameters which are easily stored in on-die SRAM?
[0]: https://www.theregister.com/systems/2026/08/06/amd-acquires-...
[1]: https://thenextweb.com/news/google-frozen-chip-gemini-silico...
> It remains to be seen who is actually willing to pay for it at the prices required to recoup those insane investments.
Everyone. Open models are going to keep prices down. A lot of current models are more than usable. Self-hosting would have been an option if hardware prices get back to sane values.
The insane investments have to do with insane over-valuations, VCs involved and hence media spam on it. Chinese labs for example make do with 1% of the valuation and 1% of the resources.