> The average SWE costs $200/hr

This is a pointless quibble but the hourly rate claim is not true--it's like ~$60 in the USA [0]. Maybe you meant at a specific Org but this is important context when comparing "pricing" between human and AI.

[0] https://www.salaryexpert.com/salary/job/software-developer/u...

How is this not true? Taking a Senior SWE @ ~$200K, even just the base salary cost / 2080 working hours is $100/hr. Fully loaded employer cost + accounting for non-coding time gets you to upper 100s easily.

Even for a junior making $100K, I have a hard time believe their time is worth less than $75/hr or so.

Edit: Fine, "Senior" is not "Average". But naive salary is not the true numerator.

   I have a hard time believe their time is worth less than $75/hr or so.
In many places in Europe it is.

It is. And the quality is on par with any us eng. People here forget that the big comp packages are a minority even in the US. The cost tho is much higher than just salary.

Western Europe is mostly consultancy, and the rate paid by client is usually higher, and doesn't matter if it's eastern Europe, Portugal or even India.

Company time != Pay rate, if you're working somewhere that's publicly traded check out "revenue per employee" metrics sometime.

I hire contractors for a large enterprise in the US. The going rate is typically $85-$100/hr for a senior dev, depending on specialization. Lead-level maybe $120 for the right skill set.

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Of course, the SWEs making that much (over 200k) are not representative of the broader field. That's the point.

Pay hits a ceiling, and that ceiling is moving lower regardless of experience. That has nothing to do with AI, but what the market will bear. Hiring counts of humans must increase no matter what. Moving some of the spend to AI reduces the risk of hiring less qualified employees they might have rejected a decade ago.

Wages at the top end are stagnating to subsidize this. That's undeniable.

$15, where we're going.

Federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour

An MBA's rule of thumb is that a full time employee's hourly cost to a business is at least 1.5x to 2x times their salary depending on employer taxes, benefits, offices, travel, training, hardware, perks, etc.