Its an exciting time to be alive because as of recently we certainly can detect planetary atmosphere major components out to at least 700 or so light years.
There are astronomers actively working on minor component, more biologically interesting spectrographs like chlorophyll rather than spectrograms of carbon dioxide. That'll be harder to detect and limited to shorter ranges.
At some point, probably very soon, like less than a decade, we'll be able to definitively state that we have atmospheric data in an onion layer shaped shell where we have unequivocable proof that out to X lightyears from Earth there's no planetary scale chlorophyll higher than a minimal level aka there's no earth-like plants on that planet. That shell will likely expand over time. Or, perhaps we will find a forested, or at least algae covered, planet, some light years away, which would be very interesting indeed.
The question is rapidly changing from a purely philosophical belief to scientific observation, like right now, in real time, in the 2020s. What a cool time to be alive!
This follows old, old stuff from radio astronomy along the lines of how far away could a 1960s radio telescope realistically detect life on earth. The answer IIRC was not very far LOL. But there's been a lot of progress in radio astronomy, etc.
With respect to fermi filters etc people need to pay attention to how far away the Earth can be detected using radio telescopes. That distance has imploded since the end of analog UHF TV broadcasts. We still broadcast absolute swill, in fact more than ever, but digital detection range is much lower than analog AM carrier detection range from analog TV. The Earth has, to some extent, recently gone radio-quiet, which is interesting because we are still here, in fact more of us than ever. So WRT fermi filters of not being able to detect civilizations, disappearance of 1950s/1960s signals does not necessarily imply disappearance of civilization. Another example, if any aliens are watching the high altitude freon contamination of our atmosphere they're likely really confused right about now.
I agree. The Fermi Argument, and the apparent rarity of K3 civilizations in other galaxies, is to me powerful evidence of the scarcity of life. At the least, this suggests SETI should focus on distant galaxies where the Fermi argument doesn't bite as much.
somewhere among 2 TRILLION planets in our galaxy there is a planet with enough atmosphere and magnetosphere to protect it from space radiation so there is likely bacteria
but complex life far more difficult and unlikely, very rare, as explained in the PBS Space Time I linked above, the "Cambrian Explosion"
"SpudCell" already has 36 genes; the information encoded there basically cannot occur by random processes. There is still an enormous complexity gap between it and abiotic systems.
> somewhere among 2 TRILLION planets in our galaxy there is a planet with enough atmosphere and magnetosphere to protect it from space radiation so there is likely bacteria
I reject this conclusion; it certainly isn't justified by the links you provided.
Sorry, when you make an assertion, you don't get to demand I justify questioning it. You need to explain why I should believe you.
Your reversal of burden of proof is a red flag that you don't have a good argument.
IMO, it is quite plausible that OoL is extremely unlikely and that our solar system is the only place where life occurs in the visible universe. Not proved, of course, but the possibility is by no means unreasonable.
wasn't demanding, just wanted to hear what your own logic was instead
but it's pointless to go any further I guess as it's getting outside science
the weak anthropic principle can't be falsified so it cannot be argued
I don't think we'll ever hear from "ET" but I do think it's perfectly plausible to find single-celled or simple bacteria elsewhere someday (ie. Europa, comet or asteroid)
Until we get any tangible proof of life outside Earth, there is no difference
Actually I don't think there is life outside of Earth. I think we are truly alone in this universe.
Its an exciting time to be alive because as of recently we certainly can detect planetary atmosphere major components out to at least 700 or so light years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WASP-39b
There are astronomers actively working on minor component, more biologically interesting spectrographs like chlorophyll rather than spectrograms of carbon dioxide. That'll be harder to detect and limited to shorter ranges.
At some point, probably very soon, like less than a decade, we'll be able to definitively state that we have atmospheric data in an onion layer shaped shell where we have unequivocable proof that out to X lightyears from Earth there's no planetary scale chlorophyll higher than a minimal level aka there's no earth-like plants on that planet. That shell will likely expand over time. Or, perhaps we will find a forested, or at least algae covered, planet, some light years away, which would be very interesting indeed.
The question is rapidly changing from a purely philosophical belief to scientific observation, like right now, in real time, in the 2020s. What a cool time to be alive!
This follows old, old stuff from radio astronomy along the lines of how far away could a 1960s radio telescope realistically detect life on earth. The answer IIRC was not very far LOL. But there's been a lot of progress in radio astronomy, etc.
With respect to fermi filters etc people need to pay attention to how far away the Earth can be detected using radio telescopes. That distance has imploded since the end of analog UHF TV broadcasts. We still broadcast absolute swill, in fact more than ever, but digital detection range is much lower than analog AM carrier detection range from analog TV. The Earth has, to some extent, recently gone radio-quiet, which is interesting because we are still here, in fact more of us than ever. So WRT fermi filters of not being able to detect civilizations, disappearance of 1950s/1960s signals does not necessarily imply disappearance of civilization. Another example, if any aliens are watching the high altitude freon contamination of our atmosphere they're likely really confused right about now.
I agree. The Fermi Argument, and the apparent rarity of K3 civilizations in other galaxies, is to me powerful evidence of the scarcity of life. At the least, this suggests SETI should focus on distant galaxies where the Fermi argument doesn't bite as much.
There is likely simple basic life as advanced as bacteria around the universe
But high level life was likely a series of complex accidents that is not reproducible or would be radically different than us
One of my absolute favorite PBS Space Time on the subject
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abvzkSJEhKk
> There is likely simple basic life as advanced as bacteria around the universe
What is the basis for this assertion?
single-cell "life" can be so simple that scientists can create it in a lab "SpudCell"
* https://www.science.org/content/article/lab-created-spudcell...
somewhere among 2 TRILLION planets in our galaxy there is a planet with enough atmosphere and magnetosphere to protect it from space radiation so there is likely bacteria
but complex life far more difficult and unlikely, very rare, as explained in the PBS Space Time I linked above, the "Cambrian Explosion"
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambrian_explosion
if there are viruses and fungi out there however, they could mutate eventually with enough permutations and outside stressors
that video explains the huge leap forward with DNA vs simple protein patterns
"SpudCell" already has 36 genes; the information encoded there basically cannot occur by random processes. There is still an enormous complexity gap between it and abiotic systems.
> somewhere among 2 TRILLION planets in our galaxy there is a planet with enough atmosphere and magnetosphere to protect it from space radiation so there is likely bacteria
I reject this conclusion; it certainly isn't justified by the links you provided.
you don't think there is even single-cell life anywhere else but Earth?
why would Earth be that incredibly unique?
it's even plausible Earth was accidentally seeded by panspermia (bacteria on comets)
Sorry, when you make an assertion, you don't get to demand I justify questioning it. You need to explain why I should believe you.
Your reversal of burden of proof is a red flag that you don't have a good argument.
IMO, it is quite plausible that OoL is extremely unlikely and that our solar system is the only place where life occurs in the visible universe. Not proved, of course, but the possibility is by no means unreasonable.
wasn't demanding, just wanted to hear what your own logic was instead
but it's pointless to go any further I guess as it's getting outside science
the weak anthropic principle can't be falsified so it cannot be argued
I don't think we'll ever hear from "ET" but I do think it's perfectly plausible to find single-celled or simple bacteria elsewhere someday (ie. Europa, comet or asteroid)