Thinking that five or six years from now, Fable-level intelligence could be provided at 100x the current speed... makes me feel lost. I cannot imagine what the future will look like.
Thinking that five or six years from now, Fable-level intelligence could be provided at 100x the current speed... makes me feel lost. I cannot imagine what the future will look like.
It's not just speed, it will consume a lot less energy per token, maybe even more than 100x difference. And cost for a chip that runs that one model will also go down a lot once volume scales up. They will end up way cheaper than flexible GPU chips.
I expect AI models chopped up into building blocks where 99.9% of the compute is fixed but glued together with flexible "fine tuning" layers that will adapt them to specific applications. Those kind of chips will run 99% of consumer AI and at some point be integrated into consumer devices.
It tells me that they have some kind of insider knowledge that the models have hit their limits and won't be getting much better, and it makes sense economically speaking to just bake the current models and use them for the next 5-10 years. Looks like we're near the top of the S curve.
I’m not sure we are at the top. Swarmed lower tier models appear to scale up in competence. So something like a Fable swarm running at 100x the speed might provide surprises.
But ”top of the curve reached” feels like the likelier scenario.
A model you can run for practically no cost is a new proposition. It is the CPUification of AI. Sure there be supercomputers but you PC will be pretty super too.
What would possibly tell you that?
Expensive as fuck to make chips, only makes sense if you believe whatever model you're creating a chip out of will not become completely irrelevant in 5-10 years.
Cerebras already runs large models like Kimi 2.6 or GLM at like 30x speed. 100 times is next year, not six years.
You can actually test it out on their website, just imagine 3 x faster and maybe 15% smarter.
Cerebras is literally the entire wafer, so it can't get bigger. So where is the jump from 30x to 100x coming from? Node improvements only yield like 10-20% gains these days...
They have a next generation, I don't really know if it will be 3 x or what but I heard it was significantly better.
Also there are other people innovating in hardware.
Could we not just make bigger wafers, if the technology called for it?
The investment in bigger machines at the fab might set you back billions. I don't know about the lithography technology either, how easy you can scale it to larger wafers?
There's so much you'd need to scale, it's even more expensive than the humble few billions you spend on a new fab. And, beyond R&D, the scale itself also makes it significantly more expensive. This is an energetic dead end, you would need a country to fully commit to making this one thing.
Lithography is AFAIK the most expensive part. If you wanna scale to larger wafers I'd guess you're talking hundreds of billions and at least a decade. And even then, what will your yield be? Surface area grows to the square of the diameter of a circle, and so will errors. The larger your wafer goes the lower your yield will go, especially if you're going to use the whole wafer in one final product.
we seem to be in a phase of spending trillions on the computer, so while it isn’t likely, it isn’t impossible
You also need to worry about yields, Apple, AMD etc can sell ”bad” chips as lower core versions, if you’re depending on whole wafer you have little room for error.
This.
Last month: agents spend 4 days on a hack, humans spend 3 weeks (so far) digging through the slop to figure out what happened
Next time, one of those number will be smaller, and the other will likely be bigger. How long before the analysis side gets too overwhelming to bother with? Probably less than 6 years.
Feels both unreal and dystopian. The speed at which these models are developing is very scary
It will be cool but also violent and terrible.
So, like the present
With more wealth concentrates at the top, yes.
Like some kind of pimple, which we can pop from all sides. And then we'll build something different. Something that works.
Presumably wealth would concentrate upwards even if AI was never made.
Yes it's a function of the monetary system. Absurd amounts of debt only certain people can access.