What's interesting about this is that I as a user would find this useful, but I think the AI industry as a whole would find it an absolute goddamn disaster. Opus 5 is a very good tool, but it is not a human-replacement-level intelligence, which means the entire revenue stream the industry's built on - labor replacement - is not met by this, and the only slightly charitable read of the industry's finances is that they're gonna bootstrap their way to creating the labor replacement hypothesis by getting people to spend money on Opus/etc, whereas if the actual product is a 1/20th the cost Opus-on-a-chip, the entire business and financing model that's tying up $N Trillion dollars of investment money goes out the window.
Great for us, looks like a recession as far as the Market is concerned.
Pipeline the burn into silicon, lower the latency as much as you can, for the 10-100x operation cost it's worth it. Imagine if frontier models cost $5/mtok and the 2nd or 3rd tier models cost $5/billion tokens for 3-month-old models.
The new model every week is not necessary at this point really. What if you could run opus 5 for the next couple years at 1/20 the cost?
What's interesting about this is that I as a user would find this useful, but I think the AI industry as a whole would find it an absolute goddamn disaster. Opus 5 is a very good tool, but it is not a human-replacement-level intelligence, which means the entire revenue stream the industry's built on - labor replacement - is not met by this, and the only slightly charitable read of the industry's finances is that they're gonna bootstrap their way to creating the labor replacement hypothesis by getting people to spend money on Opus/etc, whereas if the actual product is a 1/20th the cost Opus-on-a-chip, the entire business and financing model that's tying up $N Trillion dollars of investment money goes out the window.
Great for us, looks like a recession as far as the Market is concerned.
Pipeline the burn into silicon, lower the latency as much as you can, for the 10-100x operation cost it's worth it. Imagine if frontier models cost $5/mtok and the 2nd or 3rd tier models cost $5/billion tokens for 3-month-old models.