The technical aspects of SOTA models are not publicly documented. How do you know if something is converging?

SOTA American models are not. SOTA Chinese models are. From a physics aspect, closed source models cannot be too far from open source ones in terms of size. There’s only so much you can squeeze out a B100 style cluster even with fancy Dflash style diffusion model for the speculative model.

If we had deepseek v4 flash 0731 etched on a chip it would be more than capable enough and fast enough for so many people's needs, even hardcore engineer.

Will be capable and fast enough for 2-3 weeks until new sota drops

If it is capable today why would a new model change this?

I think it’s tongue in cheek. When I first got access to Sonnet 4.5 I remember thinking to myself “y’know if they never got any better and I just had access to this forever then that would be pretty okay”. Turns out my expectations have changed since then and I would like a higher baseline now.

Interesting. I've yet to find a model I consider sufficiently intelligent.

Fable is nice, but still requires a lot of guidance for large scope tasks.

if capability is a commodity then the differentiator becomes taste.

Because new stuff instantly makes anything prior bad and incapable and garbage of course! Did you forget the hype-machine speaking notes??? /s

if they were still exponentially increasing, they wouldn't be preparing for an IPO. IPO is where companies go to die and founders escape.