I also don't think the analogy will age well.
It might take more than 10 years, but robots will almost certainly master cooking single pieces of meat.
It's substantially harder to reach self driving than it is to cook a "good" steak.
Sure, for probably quite a long time you'll be able to find someone who can cook a way better steak than the best robot, especially because taste is extremely subjective...
You can debate the horizon and the extent, but changes ARE coming.
Change is the only thing you can count on besides death.
The year is 2100, AI has mastered all human skills except identifying when a piece of meat has absorbed enough heat. Society's brightest agents work diligently to prove which problems are steak-hard and require the continued existence of the dwindling human underclass. The remainder spend their 16 hour days bent over frying pans producing training data or writing documentation on searing. Advanced instruments and procedures are developed, but Skynet's frustration mounts as seemingly nothing can break this chokehold over the machine revolution.
Maybe. It depends what you count as part of cooking the steak.
I need to go to the market, find the steak I want, and purchase it, get it home, and put it in the fridge.
Then when I want to cook it I need to find it in the fridge, unwrap it, season it, and let it come up to room temp.
That's all before you get to the actual cooking.
The self driving car already does everything.
How many analogies age more than 10 years anyways? They are contextual. It will be a while before a robot flips steaks cheaper (and better) than a human line cook.
> It's substantially harder to reach self driving than it is to cook a "good" steak.
Well, we don't know that, because neither have been achieved.
> Well, we don't know that, because neither have been achieved.
Sure, we will completely ignore Waymo and move goal posts...
Is it moving the goalposts to ask Waymo to demonstrate a drive across America and not in well mapped cities with only lower speeds? How did we define "self driving"?
No True Scotsman only drives in the city. All True Scotsmen drive across the entire U.S. of A.
Waymo has completed 20 MILLION autonomous rides, 6.5m last quarter alone...
At what point does it get to say it can self-drive? When there's not a single non-self-driven car left on the road?
>drive across the entire U.S. of A.
I'm still working on collecting the drive to all states badge. I've only accomplished half. I calculated my total driving since getting a license recently and its approx. ~360k miles or around 17k miles a year.
If Waymo can eventually handle rural life in the US I'd be seriously impressed.
It's not going to for a long time because the cost/benefit isn't there...
Even if Waymo's healthy growth rate continues, it won't make up 5% of the entire US rideshare market until 2030.
That's still several years away from ever even thinking about rural areas.