>fighting China would be a proper all-out war
I figure it would probably be like the US backing Ukraine's defense against Russia but backing Taiwan's defense against China. It would probably be quite hard for China to take Taiwan. There's a lot of sea in between and you can see how well Russia's navy has done against Ukraine's drones and missiles.
I don't think so because China would not be sure what and how the US would be involved and because it would be incredibly risky to attack Taiwan without striking US forces in the area they'll likely attempt to strike US forces in Korea, Japan, Guam, the Philippines, and elsewhere.
The best US strategy is to just arm Taiwan to the teeth by selling weapons to make the invasion as risky as possible. But China can (and this is their smart play, IMO) is to just win Taiwan over politically over the long term.
> is to just win Taiwan over politically over the long term.
That was their plan until Xi became ruler for life and decided that he wanted Taiwan sooner rather than later.
> But China can (and this is their smart play, IMO) is to just win Taiwan over politically over the long term.
Yeah, that is certainly the smart play and one China is almost guaranteed to win in the long run. But that won't secure Xi as the leader that reunited the nation. He might prefer the option where he gets a chance at glory to the smart one.
I think Hong Kong has been enough of a cautionary experience for Taiwan that this is more or less not going to happen willingly.
What does winning them over look like? Are the Taiwanese supposed to come to the CCP with open arms?
Economic integration and benefits, trade stuff, whatever they'd like to ask for. I think there's a local party in Taiwan that's been pushing for it a little?
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/11/g-s1-127478/taiwan-opposition...
Read up on current politics in Taiwan. The KMT, the party that lost the civil war, fled to Taiwan, and still claimed to be the true government of China, is now essentially a PRC puppet.
How hard would it be for China to make sure no ships or airplanes arrive to Taiwan for a few weeks? The island has only days worth of food and energy. No bloody D-Day landings needed to force a political capitulation. To continue to borrow from your example, Russia has completely shut down all commercial Ukrainian seaborne and airborne traffic.
Yes they could starve them out and maybe they will. But China is certainly preparing for an amphibious invasion, so they think it might be necessary.
Taiwan is one of the most heavily armed land masses on Earth (they buy mostly from the US).