> Isn't the harness basically where the frontier model companies can capture value and create a moat of sorts?

They're trying. I see a few main avenues:

1. Fitting the models to their specific harness, so that if you want peak model performance, you're stuck with their harness. But this only works if there aren't alternative models that are similar in capability or good enough that don't have that restriction.

2. Locking you out of the harness so that you eventually are just letting it do "stuff" with your data and system, although you don't get to see what the stuff is or why it's doing it. This is the pattern discussed in that Earendil blog post, "The session you cannot take with you." Encrypted reasoning tokens, secret agent prompts, perhaps eventually not even seeing what files are being read or what data is being sent back to their server. This way, you are also shackled to their harness because nothing is portable. But it only works if you trust them implicitly and don't have alternative models and harnesses that don't treat you this way.

3. Tying subscription pricing to the use of their harness, so that it's financially punitive to use another one. This is what Anthropic does. But again, it only works if there aren't alternative models and harnesses that work similarly well for you and don't have that restriction.

4. Marketing. Anthropic is leaning into this one heavy, from what I can tell, based on the constant ads I see for Claude Code. Can it work? People do overpay for things like vodka in fancy bottles that are chemically identical to the cheap stuff. Is Veblen-good AI a trillion dollar business, though?

I think the pressure from open source innovation in models and model tooling is going to make it a tough row to hoe. But I'm biased, as I'm actively rooting for Openthropic's demise.