It's been funny watching the slippery slope fallacy fallacy at play w/the supply chain:
- We'll only move cheap plastic toys to asia
- We'll only move low-value clothing to asia
- We'll only move inexpensive electronics to asia
- We'll only move TVs to asia
- We'll only move computer assembly to asia
- We'll only move low-value semi-conductors to asia
- We'll only move CPU production to asia
Only thing really left is IP and frankly I expect asia to outperform the west in that soon enough (my understanding is that they already are in some areas, I am not an expert)
Countries don’t have infinite supplies of labor and capital. The more of an economy dedicated to making cheap plastic toys or stitching tshirts, the less economic resources available for inventing the next iPhone. The very reason China is becoming more competitive in higher value-added economic activities is because China itself has moved away from low value economic activities - like manufacturing cheap clothing - these activities that have largely moved to poorer neighboring countries over the last decade or so.
And if you’re worried that the US is about to be out competed by China in the IP sphere, surely the US would be in a much weaker position if say 50% of its economy was focused on the production of cheap generic goods?
yeah, i'm familiar with the just so stories told to us by economists, but the reality is that by moving the entire supply chain to asia there are huge knock on effects on our own ability to innovate and produce wealth
the us has papered over it w/credit (no coincidence that the credit card came out right when productive capacity was being shifted to asia) but eventually every country sits down to a banquet of consequences
same story as ever (florence under the medici, england under the whigs, etc) first productivity then usury
What economic "just so" stories have I presented? You accept that economic capacity is not infinite, right? Then you need to tell me from which sector would you reallocate workers to doing the things you listed: producing cheap plastic toys, low-value clothing, inexpensive electronics, TVs, computer assembly, low-value semi-conductors and CPU production.
Could you be more specific about the knock on effects of not making cheap plastic toys, etc. domestically? The US is still the clear global leader in technical innovation in nearly all sectors (and I'm not an American).
economic capacity is effectively infinite at this point, demand and raw inputs are the constraining factors (suggested reading: social credit (canadian not chinese)
Not making cheap plastic toys means you don't have the supply chain and expertise around plastics molding, which means you eventually lose the ability to produce housing for electronics, which means you eventually lose the ability to produce electronic components, etc. And as we see, this is exactly what has happened, just like we saw happen in Florence, England, etc. before when the elites became more interested in financialization/usury than in production.
I'm american and I don't think america is the clear global leader in technical innovation, particularly looking at electrification. We are pretty good at R&D but have lost a large part of our ability to manufacture due to the supply chain shift.
R&D is fine and all, but we've got (or had) a middle class to feed, and for the last fourty years we've been faking that with credit.
> economic capacity is effectively infinite at this point
This is a bizarre claim?
The total ability of an economy to produce goods and services is most certainly finite. For it to be infinite, we'd need infinite workers, infinite factories, infinite raw materials, infinite land, infinite infrastructure, infinite energy, etc.
many of them genuinely believe that it is progress to be above mere national interests. Certainly many people believe it to be a more progressive point of view.
Not sure if it was a naive new world order belief, blinding greed, racism, plain stupidity or a mixture of all of that. But the end result was selling the American people down the river..
There was a belief in "the end of history": that any economy that developed would inevitably become a liberal free market democracy.
I think this has left its mark. A lot of people do not seem to be able understand that this is not true. Even if they accept it intellectually its such a fundamental assumption that its still influential.
I think there was, and is, an element of racism. It still persists in that a lot of westerners cannot comprehend that they can be overtaken technologically or threatened by non-western societies. This includes people who think they are not racist, or are anti-racist.
there was an element of drinking their own kool aid. the economic religion of the late 90s and 00s was the theory of (static) comparative advantage vs export oriented industrialization.
China was only shooting itself in the foot, it was argued, by not opening its markets fully and following export oriented industrialization.
profit margins dictated economist opinions though. This is why EOI was treated as quaint while TOCA was treated as gospel truth even though one was nonsense.
So what if they're technologically superior? What we can't steal, we can buy.
When the time comes to geld the Yankees an' hitch them to the plough, we'll cut
off their balls with a knife they competed to sell us
i dont know why this is such a sensitive topic that it gets immeditely flagged and considered some sort of hate speech.
china gets massive advantage from western ideas that even benigh thing like 'lets not depend on china' is automatically considered hate speech and racism.
It's been funny watching the slippery slope fallacy fallacy at play w/the supply chain:
- We'll only move cheap plastic toys to asia
- We'll only move low-value clothing to asia
- We'll only move inexpensive electronics to asia
- We'll only move TVs to asia
- We'll only move computer assembly to asia
- We'll only move low-value semi-conductors to asia
- We'll only move CPU production to asia
Only thing really left is IP and frankly I expect asia to outperform the west in that soon enough (my understanding is that they already are in some areas, I am not an expert)
Countries don’t have infinite supplies of labor and capital. The more of an economy dedicated to making cheap plastic toys or stitching tshirts, the less economic resources available for inventing the next iPhone. The very reason China is becoming more competitive in higher value-added economic activities is because China itself has moved away from low value economic activities - like manufacturing cheap clothing - these activities that have largely moved to poorer neighboring countries over the last decade or so.
And if you’re worried that the US is about to be out competed by China in the IP sphere, surely the US would be in a much weaker position if say 50% of its economy was focused on the production of cheap generic goods?
yeah, i'm familiar with the just so stories told to us by economists, but the reality is that by moving the entire supply chain to asia there are huge knock on effects on our own ability to innovate and produce wealth
the us has papered over it w/credit (no coincidence that the credit card came out right when productive capacity was being shifted to asia) but eventually every country sits down to a banquet of consequences
same story as ever (florence under the medici, england under the whigs, etc) first productivity then usury
What economic "just so" stories have I presented? You accept that economic capacity is not infinite, right? Then you need to tell me from which sector would you reallocate workers to doing the things you listed: producing cheap plastic toys, low-value clothing, inexpensive electronics, TVs, computer assembly, low-value semi-conductors and CPU production.
Could you be more specific about the knock on effects of not making cheap plastic toys, etc. domestically? The US is still the clear global leader in technical innovation in nearly all sectors (and I'm not an American).
economic capacity is effectively infinite at this point, demand and raw inputs are the constraining factors (suggested reading: social credit (canadian not chinese)
Not making cheap plastic toys means you don't have the supply chain and expertise around plastics molding, which means you eventually lose the ability to produce housing for electronics, which means you eventually lose the ability to produce electronic components, etc. And as we see, this is exactly what has happened, just like we saw happen in Florence, England, etc. before when the elites became more interested in financialization/usury than in production.
I'm american and I don't think america is the clear global leader in technical innovation, particularly looking at electrification. We are pretty good at R&D but have lost a large part of our ability to manufacture due to the supply chain shift.
R&D is fine and all, but we've got (or had) a middle class to feed, and for the last fourty years we've been faking that with credit.
> economic capacity is effectively infinite at this point
This is a bizarre claim?
The total ability of an economy to produce goods and services is most certainly finite. For it to be infinite, we'd need infinite workers, infinite factories, infinite raw materials, infinite land, infinite infrastructure, infinite energy, etc.
China cleverly identified America's Achilles heel: the greed and shortsightedness of its oligarchs.
Give them an extra 5% profit and theyll sell out the entire country and reduce its industrial base to ashes.
many of them genuinely believe that it is progress to be above mere national interests. Certainly many people believe it to be a more progressive point of view.
Not sure if it was a naive new world order belief, blinding greed, racism, plain stupidity or a mixture of all of that. But the end result was selling the American people down the river..
There was a belief in "the end of history": that any economy that developed would inevitably become a liberal free market democracy.
I think this has left its mark. A lot of people do not seem to be able understand that this is not true. Even if they accept it intellectually its such a fundamental assumption that its still influential.
I think there was, and is, an element of racism. It still persists in that a lot of westerners cannot comprehend that they can be overtaken technologically or threatened by non-western societies. This includes people who think they are not racist, or are anti-racist.
I think the “end of history” idea was sold to the public in the same way and for the same reasons they were sold trickle down economics.
Totally agree on the racism. I do hope the West doesn’t learn that lesson the hard way.
there was an element of drinking their own kool aid. the economic religion of the late 90s and 00s was the theory of (static) comparative advantage vs export oriented industrialization.
China was only shooting itself in the foot, it was argued, by not opening its markets fully and following export oriented industrialization.
profit margins dictated economist opinions though. This is why EOI was treated as quaint while TOCA was treated as gospel truth even though one was nonsense.
Luckily for the rest of the world, your elites have made that mistake.
perhaps themselves driven by global consumers culture that doesn't care how or where something was made as long as it's slightly cheaper.
i don't think they view it as a mistake
The Capitalists Will [outsource the manufacturing of] the Rope with Which We Will Hang Them -- original quote attributed to various famous communists
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/02/22/rope/
lol I almost included that quote, but the reality is that china isn't communist in any meaningful way
i dont know why this is such a sensitive topic that it gets immeditely flagged and considered some sort of hate speech.
china gets massive advantage from western ideas that even benigh thing like 'lets not depend on china' is automatically considered hate speech and racism.