This seems very related to a trend I’m seeing as my company goes all in on AI: everyone thinks that every problem is “a couple hours” with AI now, and they all want zero external dependencies because they can move faster alone. As a result, we’re now in an even worse “yet-another-…” age where everyone has built approximately the same (but somehow incompatible) versions of all the same beginner-level software, and (ironically) while they want no external dependencies they’re also pushing for org-level mandates to require everyone else to use their solution. Meanwhile, no one wants to do the slow/bottleneck part that cant easily be automated or scaled; they just throw an “agent” at it and call it done—but there’s nothing _there_. You can trust the agent on easy tasks and you can’t trust it on hard ones, but you can’t tell which ones are easy or hard. Improvements in foundation model tech move thresholds of the problem but can’t eliminate it.
Long story short, I think we’re in a phase where the organizational value function is lagging behind the tech. A “proof of concept” used to be correlated with “proof of work” and some amount of domain understanding, but I think now what we need is a focus on “proof of understanding” or else you’re probably just wasting tokens on a baby version of the problem. A decent proxy right now is that if you have zero external dependencies then your solution is probably a toy.
> they’re also pushing for org-level mandates to require everyone else to use their solution.
That's how you get promotions when you don't do anything valuable lol ok done with the cynicism
Not cynicism, incentives. Everything is shaped by incentives. We make movies about heroes and martyrs because they're 0.001% of us.
problem is that no one knows what to build and there are way too many ppl employed
This is huge... At least from what I've seen, many companies (even if they don't know it) are largely sloppy R&D shops. Most people are on projects that are highly speculative and unlikely to generate revenue. But it often isn't framed that way. Everyone believes their project is the obvious way forward.
I’m seeing kinda the opposite. At some point it becomes obvious what to build and there’s no friction to building it anymore. So you get a flood of low effort copies of the same thing and no one wants to depend on anyone else, and the old value function was that ownership matters. I think the new value function needs to be much more focused on outcomes—and ownership isn’t an outcome.
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