> because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time...
Iran's political leadership is amenable to negotiating but their incumbent military leadership which now calls the shots aren't [0][1].
The current incumbents in the IRGC and Artesh are now vets who were deployed on the frontlines in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq and are deeply anti-Western as a result.
> or they (Iran) will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they (China) are providing to them...
This is why Iran has been leveraging Russia as well [2][3].
Russia is trying to link the Ukraine War with the Iran War ("stop giving Ukraine targeting capabilities and we'll stop giving it to Iran").
Iran's military leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4], and because hardliners still harbor negative views of China and Eastern culture as undermining the precepts of the Islamic Revolution [5][6][7] and still calling them "uncultured orientals" (شرق زدۀ بی فرهنگ)
[0] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...
[1] - https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-ar...
[2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-f...
[3] - https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Ir...
[4] - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-...
[5] - http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7...
[6] - https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88...
> leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4]
Would you say that in the broadest possible sense, this is because China cares much more about keeping an unrestricted flow of (not $140-160 a barrel) oil coming from the Persian Gulf, oil/gas exports and outbound flow unrestricted for their own domestic consumption. They think that's much more important, given a choice and the impact of oil NOT flowing to their economies, than supporting the continuation of the IRGC and status-quo leadership in Iran.
Yes.
But the issue is China doesn't have many options to push back against the IRGC's wish for shahadat.
The political and private sector economic leadership in Iran was neutered after Rouhani was not re-appointed by Khamenei, so opposition within the regime is weak and is largely purged.
Supporting opposition against the regime is also obviously a no-go as it would both be a diplomatic bruise for China's image as well as risk a Neutral or worst case Pro-American Iran, as well as send a message to Pakistan, North Korea, Laos, and Cambodia that Chinese commitments are only fair-weather.
Supporting any intervention by neighboring countries would be diplomatically bruising for China's image and risk a Neutral or worst case Pro-American Iran, as well as send a message to Pakistan, North Korea, Laos, and Cambodia that Chinese commitments are still dependent on American power projection.
And the clerical leadership and IRGC (two sides of the same coin - to join the Pasdaran you need to be ideologically vetted by clerical leadership, and a large portion of recruits are products of the religious education system) have complete control over all the organs of Iran's armed forces and it's economy, and hold resentment against both the West and East for being morally and religiously lax as well as capitalist.
Within the neighboring region, China has also been sending extensive signals of "we support you and will engage in full trade with you, and retain full diplomatic relationships, etc, no matter what you're doing to your own people domestically" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stuff like offering full accreditation to the Taliban-run embassy in Beijing and issuing visas/support for a whole cadre of Taliban officials.
If China did an about-face on maintaining friendly relations with the IRGC, that would also be a big signal to the Taliban that maybe their "all weather" relationship with China was a bit more precarious than they previously thought it was.
With the recent minor border war between Afghan Taliban and Pakistani forces, closing the major land cargo trade routes of Torkham, Spin Boldak (and flows of cargo) along the AF/PK border, Afghanistan has very recently become much more reliant on import transit trade via Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Much of that for manufactured goods and technology that Afghanistan can't build domestically (just about everything of any technical sophistication) is ultimately manufactured in China and goes through UZ and TJ.
> China has also been sending extensive signals of "we support you and will engage in full trade with you, and retain full diplomatic relationships, etc, no matter what you're doing to your own people domestically" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stuff like offering
China has started disengaging with the Taliban now that Pakistan is fighting a war against them and after the Taliban are sending their leadership to India almost every month [0][1], backing the Taliban's position [2], and the Pakistani Taliban (which has the same leadership as the Afghan Taliban) has continued to attack CPEC [3] and targeting Chinese personnel [4].
> If China did an about-face on maintaining friendly relations with the IRGC, that would also be a big signal to the Taliban that maybe their "all weather" relationship with China was a bit more precarious than they previously thought it was
China snubbed the Taliban by not condemning Pakistan's strikes on Afghanistan [2] and not pressuing Pakistan to allow Afghanistan's ascension in the SCO [5].
And there's a reason the Taliban are sending their wounded for treatment in India and not China [6].
> With the recent minor border war...
The Taliban are treating the war as existential. And they are now diverting Afghan cargo to Indian operated Shahid Beheshti Terminal in Iran [7].
[0] - https://amu.tv/247309/
[1] - https://www.afintl.com/en/202607073529
[2] - https://amu.tv/245784/
[3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/world/asia/pakistan-china...
[4] - https://afghandiaspora.org/2026/06/30/beyond-security-why-ch...
[5] - https://amu.tv/244941/
[6] - https://www.afintl.com/en/202606204287
[7] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/afghanistan-urges-india-...
> and the Pakistani Taliban (which has the same leadership as the Afghan Taliban) has continued to attack CPEC [3] and targeting Chinese personnel [4].
Is it a fair assumption that a major factor in this in China's long term and continuing military cooperation with Pakistan? Joint fighter/attack jet development programs for air force, etc. It's my understanding that China has very friendly relations with the generals who actually run the Pakistani state, no matter who might be occupying the PM/president role at any given time.
China's on the fence about transferring newer Chinese tech like the J-35 to Pakistan because the F-16 remains the backbone of the PAF [0] and American military personnel remain deployed in Pakistan to maintain the fleet.
Also, the current dictator in charge of Pakistan leans pro-America after the US allegedly helped overthrow Imran Khan [1][2].
And this is what makes it so difficult for China - opposing the IRGC makes it easier for Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos, and others to justify enhancing engagement with the US at the expense of China while supporting the IRGC means dealing with the extended logistical shock while backing an organization that views both Western and Chinese investors negatively and undermining long-term engagement with the GCC.
[0] - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/why-china-will-not-sell-5th-...
[1] - https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/pakistan-mediator-united-stat...
[2] - https://ia601601.us.archive.org/11/items/cypher-pakistan-i-0...