> an unaligned model

Beyond certain obvious 'third-rails' even experts have reasonable disagreements on what 'aligned' means.

> everyone integrates it into their business

Few large corporations would sole-source integrate a closed model developed in a country designated as a foreign adversary (which could cut off access at any time) or which their own country might restrict.

> now the foreign actor has control

Your concern is one reason why the Chinese are making most of their models open weight.

> it's not as trivial as "regulatory capture".

You're right, it's not just regulatory capture but the vested interests trying to achieve regulatory capture are certainly leveraging concerns like yours to deceptively achieve that capture. In the case of an open weight, domestically-hosted model, the threat vector you're concerned about isn't a threat in the same way as a Chinese-made, closed source data center router or 5G phone switch.