John Brunner and Alvin Toffler both made stark warnings wrapped in futuristic giddiness about things like it. People like Fuller no doubt thought polling on a large scale was terrific. There were old usenet groups and BBS subs (minus the money aspect) experimenting with the model. I do not believe they ever are or were good in a largescale model (money or not).
I mean wisdom of crowds, super-forecasters, calibration and pre-registration are useful tools that can result in better predictions, turning it into online gambling is where it went sideways.
Mini-rant: Promoters claim that the system serves a public good by helping society discover/converge on useful truths sooner.
Even where the question/event is of public interest, the opposite happens instead. People with expertise or non-public information are incentivized to misdirect and delay as long as possible, as that maximizes what they can make from betting.
John Brunner and Alvin Toffler both made stark warnings wrapped in futuristic giddiness about things like it. People like Fuller no doubt thought polling on a large scale was terrific. There were old usenet groups and BBS subs (minus the money aspect) experimenting with the model. I do not believe they ever are or were good in a largescale model (money or not).
I mean wisdom of crowds, super-forecasters, calibration and pre-registration are useful tools that can result in better predictions, turning it into online gambling is where it went sideways.
Mini-rant: Promoters claim that the system serves a public good by helping society discover/converge on useful truths sooner.
Even where the question/event is of public interest, the opposite happens instead. People with expertise or non-public information are incentivized to misdirect and delay as long as possible, as that maximizes what they can make from betting.