> My impression is that, if China surpasses the US in AI development, there will basically be nothing that the US does better than the rest of the world--except for military spending
This comment is stunningly out of touch. The US dominates finance (overwhelming lead in assets managed, stock market capitalization, trading volume, and basically every other metric); space launch (about 85% of all mass placed into orbit); medical devices (exports nearly 2x the second largest exporter); and pharmaceutical research (more active clinical trials than any other country, near-universally ranked as the top producer of major pharmaceutical innovations, world-leading survival rates on many cancer types). We are the world's leading producer of both oil and natural gas. We manufacture the world's most advanced jet engines, precision agricultural machinery, and measurement instruments. We design the world's most performant CPU's and GPU's. We film the most popular movies and record the most popular music. Despite having only 4% of the world's population, there is literally not a single major industry where the US is not a leading player.
There is no doubt that China is a serious threat to US global leadership, and they have already surpassed us in many areas. But that doesn't mean the US is behind overall. We still have a lot of strengths and we have every reason to hope for continued success in the 21st century.
I wouldn’t say “literally” every industry: stuff like clothing, shipbuilding, consumer electronics assembly, certain rare earth raw materials, all we have pretty little participation in. But these are as you point out the exceptions that prove the rule.
Don't forget pizza delivery.
Finance mostly true, space launch also true, cancer survival broadly true (with qualifications), oil and natural gas also true.
> (exports nearly 2x the second largest exporter)
Can you provide the source? In the WTO's broader medical goods category, Germany actually exported slightly more than the US in 2022 ($202.6 billion versus $189.6 billion), so such a huge difference in a few years?
> and pharmaceutical research
China accounted for approximately 44.2% of the 104 new molecules in 2025, compared with 26.9% for the U.S. and 15.4% for Europe.
The 2024 shares were approximately 34.6% for China, 30.9% for the U.S., and 22.2% for Europe.
> there is literally not a single major industry where the US is not a leading player.
I will just give 3 examples: China completed roughly 91% of the world’s shipbuilding tonnage in 2025, holds more than 80% of solar module manufacturing capacity and produces more than three quarters of global batteries.
> Can you provide the source? In the WTO's broader medical goods category, Germany actually exported slightly more than the US in 2022 ($202.6 billion versus $189.6 billion), so such a huge difference in a few years?
Sure, these are my sources. World Bank (2023): https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/yea... Observatory of Economic Complexity (2024): https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/medical-instruments
> China accounted for approximately 44.2% of the 104 new molecules in 2025, compared with 26.9% for the U.S. and 15.4% for Europe.
Source for this? My source was Citeline's 2026 annual review at https://pulseforinnovation.org/by-the-numbers-citelines-rd-a... which states:
> Findings from Citeline’s latest report, Pharma R&D Annual Review 2026, highlight the continued U.S. leadership in the life sciences ecosystem... The U.S. leads all other countries, currently advancing over 11,600 medicines – more than half of medicines in development worldwide.
> I will just give 3 examples
In general, I was referring to "major industries" in the sense of economic categories, as defined by (for example) the UN: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/seriesm/seriesm_4rev... Here shipbuilding is considered to be part of "manufacture of other transport equipment." I admit my wording was a bit imprecise; if you are going down to the level of specific products like ships or solar panels, clearly it will be easy to find examples of things that the US does not produce on any significant scale. Nevertheless, a few comments on your examples:
> China completed roughly 91% of the world’s shipbuilding tonnage in 2025
Source on this? 91% is a lot and I can't find anyone else making this claim. However I'll concede that the US is far behind China, South Korea, and Japan in shipbuilding.
> [China] holds more than 80% of solar module manufacturing capacity
You are correct that the US has "only" 60 GW of domestic solar module production capacity according to https://www.utilitydive.com/news/onshored-solar-supply-chain... However, as context - the only purpose of producing solar modules is to generate solar power, and the US was the 2nd-largest producer of solar power in 2025 according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country Surely that makes us a leading player.
> [China] produces more than three quarters of global batteries
True but the US was the 2nd largest producer. In battery cells, we have an estimated capacity of 96 GWh in 2026. https://poweralliance.org/2026/03/18/american-energy-storage... Likewise in lithium-ion batteries: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-lithium...
Fuck yeah!