That would sound very reasonable except this is the same what people said first about Windows and then Android crushing Apple.

And yet it's Apple that controls the top of the market and has the best margins in the business.

This is the same position OpenAI and Anthropic have right now.

Could this market be different? Maybe. But the status quo could be preserved as well.

I don’t agree. In the mainframe/PC battle, MS and Apple were basically on the same side. Once the dinosaurs went extinct, different mammals fought for dominance.

Counterpoint: linux owns the server space.

Cheap PCs enabled the creation of Linux. Linux runs on the descendants of PCs, not mainframes.