> 10-15 years? The current rate is closer to 10-15 months.
The leaps between models have gotten smaller and smaller. 2023-2024 models were rocketing up in quality. 2024-2025 I’d say was pretty impressive too. But 2025-2026? Very easy to feel the slowing pace of improvement. I agree 10-15 years is overly conservative but 10-15mo is far too bullish.
The speed of model releases, in my view, is actually getting faster and faster. There were nearly nine months between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. And now in just over one month, major models already included Claude Fable 5, Claude Sonnet 5, the GPT-5.6 series, Kimi K3, GLM 5.2, Qwen 3.8 Max, Grok 4.5... and the official DeepSeek V4 release is coming soon.
Iteration speed is now measured in days.
Agreed. That said, I think months wins out as “closer to.”