This was tweeted about when it happened, with some explanation from Tibo here: https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2076543065045795309

To see replies: https://xcancel.com/thsottiaux/status/2076543065045795309

The linked tweet is an unofficial reply to Tibo's official info and Tibo makes a correction in a reply.

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X.com is not publicly accessible. I wish people would stop using it as a source

Then sign up for X instead of circumventing it because you’re a woke leftist upset with Elon.

Why do the woke lefties on HN get so upset and downvote and flag.

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Am I dumb or does this chart make no sense? Or why does the line only go up even with compaction? Or maybe "overall trajectory size" is hiding some meaning I don't understand?

The chart makes sense and is describing the cumulative cost of a trajectory. Cache tokens are created when a trajectory’s prefix is used more than once. A larger pre-compaction context window means that a greater number of cache tokens are used per turn, and a larger number of turns are completed before compaction runs. So you get a cumulative cost that grows quadratically until the compaction event.

The blue line (200K context) is lower than the red line (300K context). Indicating that it's cheaper to run blue rather than red over longer cycles.

The Y axis is total cost in USD. For it to go down would mean OpenAI refunding you money.

How can the overall trajectory length be the same across reasoning efforts? I don't see how this is possible even if reasoning is not included in the trajectory length calculation.

I think Tibo was just keeping all else fixed and it’s an illustrative example rather than a perfect real-world trajectory.