This isn’t even controversial assuming you’re talking about the real world, economists freely admit that. It only holds for spherical markets in a vacuum.
Your point that “people will be gobsmacked” suggests you think you know something that the broad market does not. In a loose way, that implies the market has enough information to anticipate this but is not pricing assets accordingly. Asked another way, why not just short American assets if you are convinced of your hypothesis? Why live here, assuming you do?
The efficient market hypothesis, read loosely, says that capitalism is the best system. Yet here it is being thoroughly pwned by a series of 5-year plans.
exactly zero serious people draw that connection, and it suggests that you either dont know what the term means or are constructing a strawman. Most of the economic literature for the last 150 has explored the constraints on markets and their function.
The efficient market hypothesis TM is a very narrow theory about price information, it says nothing about Economic Development or Direction. It is a theoretical extreme that can be used to compare real world Systems.
Further, China's success relies heavily on market processes
This isn’t even controversial assuming you’re talking about the real world, economists freely admit that. It only holds for spherical markets in a vacuum.
How is the efficient market hypothesis applicable here?
Your point that “people will be gobsmacked” suggests you think you know something that the broad market does not. In a loose way, that implies the market has enough information to anticipate this but is not pricing assets accordingly. Asked another way, why not just short American assets if you are convinced of your hypothesis? Why live here, assuming you do?
The efficient market hypothesis, read loosely, says that capitalism is the best system. Yet here it is being thoroughly pwned by a series of 5-year plans.
exactly zero serious people draw that connection, and it suggests that you either dont know what the term means or are constructing a strawman. Most of the economic literature for the last 150 has explored the constraints on markets and their function.
The efficient market hypothesis TM is a very narrow theory about price information, it says nothing about Economic Development or Direction. It is a theoretical extreme that can be used to compare real world Systems.
Further, China's success relies heavily on market processes
What do you mean, I don't follow.
Also, yes, often.