> I personally do not think it will take even 10 years for the situation to be commonplace.
Do you personally remember how far smartphones progressed in the past 10 years? It's not as long a time as you think it is, the limits of what a smartphone GPU is capable of did not substantially change in that time. Nor did the amount of onboard RAM that we include in the package. This is true even for Nvidia's ARM SOCs, frankly.
Apple, Microsoft and Google all eventually want to enforce OS-level lock-in for the most profitable AI services (eg. their own). It's much more attainable and profitable to use that lock-in to sell you exclusive service integration, the local AI revolution probably won't begin on their hardware.
Only if you narrowly define AI as talking with a chatbot. Today, on an iPhone, there are a number of features that only work due to some sort of a model running locally. OCR and intelligent object selection in a photos, and summarization of texts are local models running on the iPhone hardware, they're just not a chatbot. Yes, there's also cloud backing various features, but the idea of running models locally isn't foreign to Apple. On Google's side, the Pixel 10 Pro is powerful enough to run quantized local chatbot models locally today. Local translate is a model, and has been for a while. Both corporations are going to sell whatever customers are willing to pay for, in money or via ads, and if local models get good enough that customers actually are willing to pay for it, I have no doubt that it's Apple and Google will go that direction. It's Google that's releasing Gemma models for download, and they're a big enough organization that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing, so the one conspiracy theory that they'll never do local models because they only want to profit off hosted models is too simplistic.