It sure is suspicious that both Anthropic (adaptive thinking) and OpenAI (Avoid generic brevity instructions) both seem to be suggesting that the best way to improve outcomes is to entirely leave it to them to decide how many tokens get used.

I mean, it's true that it would be ideal of this stuff did just get figured out optimally behind the API, but there is definitely an incentive on their side to burn more tokens.

Perhaps the incentive is for variable behavior. When there is low GPU demand, burn more, but reduce when there is contention.