> If there's a trend
That's the point being made. Is there a trend? How do we know?
There's always some repos moving between hosting providers for all kinds of reasons. The burden of proof is on the author here to show there's been an increase and they don't do that.
The early adopters are leaving. These are the people that will blaze a trail that others follow.
Which early adopters exactly? The most prominent example they gave is ghostty which has existed for just a couple of years, notwithstanding the fact that the owner published a spiel about how he's personally been using it for longer.
An early adopter is someone who is first in line to try something new, usually because they're willing to build part of the new thing with their own hands. Just look at what projects are on any of the third-party forges, those are the early adopters of post-github tech.
I would also be one of them, but I'm not actually off Github yet. That's because I haven't quiite finished building the thing I'm going to move to.
I know what an early adopter is. Should we call this HNsplaining?
I'm saying that Ghostty, which is ~5 years old, cannot be called an early adopter of GitHub, which is 18 years old.
You could say that any time two distant psychos roll their Teslas off a rocky cliff and then exclaim "Why Tesla drivers are dumping their cars".
And not provide any other meaningful data
Rolling your car off a cliff isn't the same thing. This would be more like you want to drive your Tesla into the jungle so you build a road as you go.
The key problem is not losing the cars but losing the road builders who are now no longer building roads that lead to you, but rather roads that lead away