Could it actually be that the United States is in a plain old recession?

I know the stock markets are higher than ever due to AI investment. But the real economy may not be in a great shape hence the layoffs.

While the cause may be not be AI, but instead policy, e.g. tariffs. But also multiple conflicts ( Ukraine , Iran, Lebanon), leading higher oil , gas, critical raw material prices. China heavy exporting economy but not having domestic demand to fuel growth and bilateral trade with other countries.

All leading to less consumer consumption, slower economy , more layoffs to cut costs, less consumer consumption etc.

So no ai related but many external factors at the same time. But ai is hiding the pain due to the high stock market valuations. Which may explain that despite all the usual recession symptoms we aren’t treating it as a recession.

I am curious what other think.