>I'm also assuming that world continues to have agents that are majority hosted and run by 3rd parties (ex - google/anthropic/openai/xai/etc).

That seems like a pretty big assumption, given that local models are only like a year behind frontier ones (or less).

When you consider that, along with the completely unsustainable business model of all the major 3rd parties, I think a far more realistic view of our AI future is that AI will largely be commodified: it won't run on a few specialized companies, it will run on your hardware, or on budget providers (think an "AWS of AI").

Frontier AI will almost certainly continue to exist, but will be focused on specific niches.