Its not population only logic, but it does underscore that it is silly to expect the United States to inevitably be ahead.

As for the rest of it:

https://youtu.be/74DAI2hr9Kk?t=159

I dont necessarily disagree with you on your other points, but the population argument sort of shows a lack of understanding of how China works. It’s not guaranteed at all that they will ever overtake the US.