I think the bigger issue is the ever increasing capital requirements, which may cause even the closed weight companies to fall away from the frontier, e.g. Google & Meta are barely hanging on. For Google it feels a bit existential to remain at the frontier, but even then they're barely there.
I hope that we find ways of continuing to improve these models besides continuing to exponentially increase capex spend until all but one of your competitors falls away.
Isn't another issue that most successful open models are distilled from closed models, but closed models are putting more and better safeguards against distillation?
Google and Meta's failures are more due to mismanagement no?
I have no idea what's going wrong inside Google/Meta, they certainly have capital. But when you need this much cash, not many people are going to be able to have a shot on goal. It would not surprise me if Meta threw in the towel. Microsoft and Apple aren't even trying.
At times of rapid change, having a working business model can be a disadvantage.
For instance, Facebook were able to optimize their core ads product for mobile, in a way that was much more difficult for Google.