I have done replication tests of Qwen and the Gemma models. The Qwen benchmarks are published: https://swelljoe.com/post/qwen-quantization-degradation/ . (Though, I still want to add the other three cases to that one. I was mostly testing quantization effects in that test, but it also served as a replication test of Qwen in finding bugs.)

The Gemma 4 replication tests are not published, yet, but Gemma 4 31B consistently performs the best of all of them. Note Gemma 4 31b has two "partials" on the big benchmark, which means it found a bug in the right place but the judge didn't think it understood the bug, those are probably unfairly judged "wrong bug" by Opus. It consistently finds four of nine, and sometimes finds two others, making Gemma 4 31b the best model I've tested. But, I suspect the big models would do even better if giving multiple attempts, as I did for Gemma 4. You can see the report of that here, note 31b finds six(!) of nine bugs if given a couple of attempts (MoE does much worse than the dense model, it may degrade more due to quantization, I'm still experimenting): https://swelljoe.com/html/gemma-promptlab-report.html

The "partial" score thing is kinda tricky, but it's actually quite rare for a model to find the right place but describe the bug in a way that Opus considers it to be the wrong bug. So, I'm inclined to give Gemma 4 full credit for those finds. When I read its bug report, it's clear that you'd fix the problem Gemma describes the same way as you would if given Opus' description of the problem, even if the mechanism of exploit is different. That, to me, is a hit. Opus called it the wrong bug.

And, yeah, a more powerful Gemma would be great. I'd love a double-sized Gemma 4 MoE (something like 70B A8B maybe, or even 122B A12B). I think that'd make self-hosted models feasible for a lot of tasks. It'd run comfortably on a 128GB machine, and if it's some reasonable amount smarter than the 31B, it'd be a real beast.