The ram/gpu shortage won't last forever though. Moreover we can be pretty confident that long-term the prices will obey wrights law and come down in cost significantly (from the pre-shortage prices) as we learn to produce them more efficiently.
LLM companies are valued as if they're going to have some enduring monopoly that they can extract money from... GLM-5.2 and similar models make that valuation very very questionable.
> The ram/gpu shortage won't last forever though.
No disagreement there, but it could easily last another 3 to 5 years which is a long time in tech terms.
Long enough for them to IPO and all the execs to retire. I doubt they care beyond the IPO.
I think this is the play
> The ram/gpu shortage won't last forever though
Don't underestimate the markets ability to remain irrational
the companies which have the power to alleviate these shortages are the same companies who are profiting most from the shortage. scarcity is an asset, it's not irrational that a concentrated marked will produce more of that asset.
The solution for high prices is high prices.
If making RAM and SSDs is now cause for a 10 figure valuation, after enough time somebody will dive in.
What's the irrational part? There's sky high demand.
maybe the irrational part is the amount of demand for consumer hardware, wouldn't the market for professional ML/AI used hardware go away from consumer hardware over time? (I can talk more about what I mean consumer hardware to be)
Also irrational parts of this market (would love to hear your thoughts):
- the purchase of hardware that isn't power efficient or gives an ROI for ML/AI use cases by companies buying it, who would be priced out of using that hardware over time
- many people and companies are buying the hardware due to hype and scarcity/FOMO reasons over rational reasons