Say all the SOTA (remote) LLMs went away tonight, would programmers everywhere suddenly be giving up on programming? Maybe some, but unlikely that most would. It's not so much of a rug-pull if it's an inconvenience at most when it goes away. Maybe some would take some time to readjust (some days/weeks/months?), but then it'd be back to normal again.
> Say all the SOTA (remote) LLMs went away tonight, would programmers everywhere suddenly be giving up on programming?
That's assuming that the code base in question is still well maintained and designed. If this were to happen I would bet that heavily vibe coded things - like Bun and Claude Code - would pretty much immediately hit a wall, where humans just can't comprehend the accumulated mess well enough to make productive changes.
> would pretty much immediately hit a wall, where humans just can't comprehend the accumulated mess well enough to make productive changes.
Plenty of people spent lots of time of their career essentially cleaning up code and refactoring after others. Yes it'd be a lot, but there are really giant spaghetti's out there that been 100% built by humans, then conquered by refactorers.
Short of outlawing all models, I don’t see a world in which we ever go back to only manual coding.
Who are "we"? Can't go back to what you never left.
I'm not forcing anyone to use tools they don't want. The Amish can continue making their handcrafted furniture, but I'll make sure to work on construction sites that have power tools.
In your mind this sounds like “damn kids, get off my lawn”, and to the kids it sounds like, “I will only ever plow my fields with donkeys, tractors are too complex for something like plowing”.
I'm totally fine with the kids' understanding, for whatever that's worth.
i am still manual coding
not gonna change
still gonna get paid $300k+ for it
No need to outright outlaw models.
Just continue down the path of making it so only the oligarchs can afford to access them, power them, and buy capable hardware to run them locally.
Also helps the oligarchs to have their government assets issue impossible restrictions like “no foreigners can access” that isn’t technically outlawing models for everyone.
> Say all the SOTA (remote) LLMs went away tonight
Most likely that would cause company pulling the rug on their frontier model(s), to fall over themselves. Meanwhile the competition keeps going. Hence no top AI player does that unless forced to.