GLM 5.2 is already between 4.6 Opus 4.7 Opus level based on Artificial Analysis aggregation. 4.6 Opus is about 4 months old at this point, so seems like open source is maybe 4-6 months behind. It could still take a year but seems closer to 6 months.
Artificial Analysis is just as benchmark-maxxed as they come. Aggregating tons of benchmark-maxxing means you're still benchmark-maxxed.
There's simply no replacement for training on more, better tokens, with more parameters. Mythos/Fable was estimated to be closer to 10T parameters than the 800B like GLM 5.2 is.
I dont seem to understand why no one is talking about this obvious fact? I mean suddenyl everyone is banning .. ok .. well how many months behind are the open source models?
If you assume that open models catch up in 6-12-36 months, then you either assume exponential growth destroying the global economy and probably the world in a few years, or you assume it plateaus and commoditises.
Even if your country prevents access to compute to protect the trillion dollar companies, it’s not going to apply for every country, and as models get better it becomes easier to compete. There’s no way an AI non proliferation treaty will be passed or even enforceable.
We'll see Mythos 2.0 patching all the Mythos 1.0 vulnerabilities before we see an open-source Mythos 1.0.
What matters isn't the power of the tool, but whether defenders have had time to secure against. Today's cyberweapon is tomorrow's laughably obsolete.
Stuxnet used to be a national security threat, now I'm not sure it would be useful for anything.
They were not saying f Open Spurce Mythos 1.0. They were talking about performance / capability parity in other open source models.
Yeah, and by the time that happens, we will have seen Mythos 2.0 released
I think it's probably more like a year or a year and a half. I don't want to say two years, but it's what I'm actually thinking.
GLM 5.2 is already between 4.6 Opus 4.7 Opus level based on Artificial Analysis aggregation. 4.6 Opus is about 4 months old at this point, so seems like open source is maybe 4-6 months behind. It could still take a year but seems closer to 6 months.
Artificial Analysis is just as benchmark-maxxed as they come. Aggregating tons of benchmark-maxxing means you're still benchmark-maxxed.
There's simply no replacement for training on more, better tokens, with more parameters. Mythos/Fable was estimated to be closer to 10T parameters than the 800B like GLM 5.2 is.
I dont seem to understand why no one is talking about this obvious fact? I mean suddenyl everyone is banning .. ok .. well how many months behind are the open source models?
If you assume that open models catch up in 6-12-36 months, then you either assume exponential growth destroying the global economy and probably the world in a few years, or you assume it plateaus and commoditises.
Even if your country prevents access to compute to protect the trillion dollar companies, it’s not going to apply for every country, and as models get better it becomes easier to compete. There’s no way an AI non proliferation treaty will be passed or even enforceable.
Open source models get banned.
in America, maybe, but all of our adversaries will still have access to them, and continue working on them.