Agreed that you can export-control the closed source models pretty well (although I think the administration is gravely underestimating the long-term damage that will do to the US economy).
The bigger problem will be if someone (such as a Chinese AI lab) releases a Fable/Mythos-class open weight model. That you can't really export control successfully. Sure, you could class it under EAR or ITAR, but that's just going to make using it difficult for American companies, not everyone else. It would be a stupid protectionist measure that would only hurt the US - so I fully anticipate the admin would try it.
I can't think of anything better that could happen than a Mythos/Fable level model released with open weights. It would be a huge step forward for the whole world.
Particularly if it came paired with DeepSeek pricing.
Alternatively, we could try to keep closing barn doors after the horses are already in the next county, have been hit by a car, and are on their way to the rendering plant.
Oh, I wholeheartedly agree! My "bigger problem" statement can be read as "a bigger problem for the US government."
Isn't GLM5.2 already Mythos class?
How do you qualify what makes a model "Mythos class", and how do you reliably test for it?
Presumably a deepswe benchmark, which IIRC puts GLM 5.2 between opus 4.8 and fable.